The crypto investment firm and ETF issuer 21Shares previously speculated that Bitcoin would move away from its four-year trend by 2026.
However, nearly half a year later, the firm acknowledged on Wednesday that reality differs—especially as Bitcoin dips below the $60,000 threshold for the second time this month.
“As we approach 2026, we initially thought that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles might have concluded,” the firm stated in its most recent “State of the Market” report. “Six months later, we must admit: the price trends still appear consistent.”
Although the four-year trading cycle—traditionally marked by peaks and troughs following the halving of its mining reward—remains unbroken, the market dynamics have shifted, and the firm asserts that its main hypothesis isn’t entirely off the mark.
“The market has undergone significant changes: institutional ownership of ETFs is on the rise, and the current drawdown of about 50% is considerably less severe than the 80%+ downturns seen in previous cycles,” 21Shares noted.
Currently, Bitcoin is down 52% from its peak of $126,080, trading at $59,781 on Wednesday. This price is still above its on-chain cost basis of $54,000, as per Glassnode, indicating that the market has not succumbed to “complete capitulation.”
While Bitcoin ETFs have helped stabilize market cycles, they haven’t attracted the level of investment that 21Shares predicted for this year.
In addition to expecting a break in the cycle, the firm had projected that crypto ETFs would soar to $400 billion in assets under management this year. However, after six months, there’s actually been a net outflow of capital from crypto ETFs, contributing to the decline of both Bitcoin and Ethereum from their all-time highs.
According to CoinGlass data, nearly $3 billion has exited crypto ETFs during the last quarter, with total crypto ETFs down nearly $5 billion since the beginning of the year.
Strategy Shares Crash Below $100 as Bitcoin Sinks Towards $60K
The firm also missed expectations in other areas, such as forecasting a rise in the stablecoin market cap to $1 trillion, predicting $300 billion in total value locked for DeFi, and $250 billion in managed assets for crypto treasury firms (DATs)—all of which have faced challenges from ongoing regulatory uncertainty, frequent DeFi exploits, and declining cryptocurrency values.
Nevertheless, one prediction that is still on track is the firm’s optimistic outlook on prediction market trading volumes, which are expected to exceed $100 billion this year.