The previously reliable four-year pattern observed in Bitcoin‘s price fluctuations might be a thing of the past. That’s according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. In his July 2025 analysis, Hougan suggests that increased institutional interest, clearer regulations, and new financial products are transforming Bitcoin’s trajectory, potentially making 2026 a critical year for the cryptocurrency [1].
While Bitcoin halvings have historically triggered price increases due to reduced supply, Hougan believes their impact is diminishing. He points out that the halving’s influence has halved every four years, indicating its future role as a market mover will further decrease as the sector matures [2]. Instead, Hougan highlights factors such as rising acceptance among major financial institutions, improving regulatory landscapes, the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the increasing integration of crypto into Wall Street. These factors operate over longer periods than the traditional four-year cycle [3].
Improved regulatory clarity, boosted by events like the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025, reduces uncertainty for crypto businesses and encourages investment from larger institutions [4]. Simultaneously, Bitcoin ETFs, which gained popularity starting in 2024, are becoming a mainstream option, with pension funds and other long-term investors adding them to their portfolios [5]. Institutional adoption extends beyond just ETFs, with specialized custodial services and trading platforms designed for institutional investors facilitating greater capital inflows into the crypto market [6].
Hougan also underscores Wall Street’s growing involvement with cryptocurrencies. He argues the GENIUS Act enabled banks and brokerage firms to provide crypto-related services without the prior regulatory ambiguity. This has led to infrastructure investments that could fundamentally change how the market operates [7]. “These positive forces will outweigh the traditional four-year cycle,” Hougan predicts, envisioning 2026 as a pivotal year fueled by consistent demand rather than short-lived halving volatility [8].
Hougan contends that the 2024 halving marked the end of the old cycle. With institutional investments, regulatory improvements, and new product offerings now influencing price changes, the focus is shifting away from short-term cycles to long-term fundamentals [9]. This signals a more mature market where Bitcoin’s value is increasingly tied to institutional involvement and infrastructure development, rather than just scarcity-driven speculation.
Although some analysts are cautious, Hougan’s viewpoint aligns with broader industry observations. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also noted the four-year cycle is becoming less relevant as large institutional investors now dominate accumulation trends [1]. However, some experts, such as analyst Rekt Capital, suggest Bitcoin might still follow past patterns, potentially reaching a peak in October 2025 – 550 days following the 2024 halving, mirroring the 2020 cycle [9].
Regardless, Hougan remains optimistic about 2026, forecasting a “sustained steady boom” as opposed to a volatile supercycle. He admits the possibility of short-term price swings, but emphasizes that regulatory progress and institutional acceptance have lessened the risk of catastrophic downturns, making the market more resilient to sharp corrections [1].
Source: [1] [Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)
[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)
[3] [Bitcoin’s 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as …](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)
[4] [Crypto market’s four-year cycle is ‘dead’](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)
[5] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)
[6] [Bitwise CIO declares the crypto cycle dead—institutions](https://crypto.news/bitwise-cio-says-four-year-crypto-cycle-over-heres-why/)
[7] [Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption and ETFs …](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-institutional-adoption-etfs-reshape-crypto-market-dynamics-2026-2507/)
[8] [Bitcoin’s four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market …](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)
[9] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)