The head of a well-known cryptocurrency analytics company has shifted to a bearish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that it has reached a significant peak in its market cycle.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, shared his perspective with his 417,200 followers on X (formerly Twitter), stating that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve new all-time highs for at least six months.
According to the analytics firm executive, their Bitcoin Profit and Loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals tool, which aggregates various on-chain metrics to pinpoint market cycle tops and bottoms, recently issued a signal potentially marking the end of Bitcoin’s bullish phase.
“The Bitcoin bull cycle appears to be over. We anticipate a period of bearish or sideways price movement lasting six to twelve months.”
He also mentioned that Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average is beginning to decline, further suggesting that Bitcoin might be entering a bearish trend.
“Virtually every on-chain indicator points towards a bear market. With new capital inflows diminishing, larger Bitcoin holders are selling at progressively lower prices…
This alert applies PCA (Principal Component Analysis) to on-chain data such as MVRV (market value to realized value), SOPR (spent output profit ratio), and NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss) to calculate a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies key turning points where the trend of the one-year moving average shifts…
I’ve verified the data thoroughly – it’s accurate.”
MVRV helps determine if a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its current market capitalization to the average price at which all coins were last transacted (realized capitalization). SOPR is used to track whether coin holders are selling at a profit or loss, helping to identify potential price reversal zones.
NUPL provides insight into the overall profitability or loss status of a coin’s investors, reflecting general market sentiment.
According to Ki Young Ju, the on-chain signals imply that Bitcoin is “transitioning into a bear market.”
“Indicators based on realized capitalization suggest a lack of new liquidity. Substantial trading volume around $100,000 failed to push prices higher, and ETF (exchange-traded fund) inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks.”
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $83,157.
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