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At the WebX 2025 conference in Tokyo, Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency world and co-founder of BitMEX, presented his investment outlook for Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Hayes, through his family office Maelstrom, believes the token has significant growth potential, outlining a scenario where it could see a substantial increase in value. He shared a slide projecting a “126x Upside,” based on projections for the decentralized perpetuals exchange.
Is HYPE the Top Crypto Opportunity?
Hayes’s valuation is centered around the anticipated growth of the stablecoin market. His presentation suggested that expanding stablecoin adoption could drive annualized fees for Hyperliquid to $258 billion. This projection utilizes assumptions such as a 0.03% net trading fee, a 5% discount rate, and a terminal value for HYPE revenue of $5.161 trillion, compared to its current fully diluted valuation of roughly $41.05 billion. This calculation results in the projected “Upside Potential 126X.” Hayes stated to the audience during his talk that he anticipates HYPE “to 126x over the next three years.”
This forecast comes as Hyperliquid experiences strong performance metrics. Recent data reveals that Hyperliquid achieved a record 196,462 open positions on a recent Sunday, open interest surpassed $15 billion, total wallet equity reached nearly $31 billion, and weekend trading volume hit a high of about $19.46 billion, according to DefiLlama.
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A recent analysis by Redstone indicated that Hyperliquid has rapidly gained market share, now accounting for “over 75% of the entire decentralized perpetual exchange market” within two years. This puts it in direct competition with dYdX and, on certain trading pairs, reaching levels comparable to Binance volumes.
Hayes’s optimistic outlook hinges on the connection between macroeconomic trends and Hyperliquid’s performance. He envisions a future where the total value of stablecoins in circulation reaches $10 trillion by 2028. He further projects that Hyperliquid will capture 26.4% of the average daily trading volume, resulting in $258 billion in annualized fees for the protocol.
The core of his argument lies in the relationship between stablecoin growth, trading volumes, and HYPE’s tokenomics. If Hyperliquid’s volumes and fees increase proportionally with the stablecoin market, and if HYPE continues to reflect the protocol’s economic success, the token’s potential future value would significantly exceed its current valuation. These projections were shared on the Maelstrom slide during the Tokyo presentation.
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Supporting his thesis, Hayes has been actively investing in HYPE. According to on-chain data from Lookonchain on August 15th, Arthur Hayes purchased additional HYPE, along with LDO and ENA. Over five days, his purchases included 58,631 HYPE, 1,750 ETH, 3.1 million ENA, 1.29 million LDO, 184,610 PENDLE, and 420,000 ETHFI, totaling approximately $15.9 million at the time.
Hyperliquid’s design and function support the stablecoin-centric model. It provides a decentralized platform for perpetual futures trading, enabling traders to use leverage without expiration dates. Built on its own Layer 1 blockchain, Hyperliquid has experienced consistent growth in both open interest and fee generation throughout 2025.
Hayes has previously expressed enthusiasm for HYPE, suggesting a near-term price target of $100 back in May. However, Monday’s presentation provided a more detailed and data-driven justification for his long-term bullish outlook. The key question is whether the projected $10 trillion stablecoin market and Hyperliquid’s assumed market share are realistic. Nonetheless, Hayes emphasizes the connection between fee generation driven by stablecoin adoption and the resulting value accrual to the HYPE token, a concept shared by many analysts who view HYPE’s tokenomics as directly linked to Hyperliquid’s overall performance through revenue and buyback mechanisms.
At the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $45.84.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com