Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, recently highlighted the growing popularity of prediction markets, particularly those centered around the nation’s Bitcoin investments potentially reaching a $1 billion valuation by the end of the year.
President Bukele used the social media platform X on Thursday to draw attention to Kalshi, a prediction market platform. He noted the increased activity surrounding bets that El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) portfolio will reach the $1 billion mark by late 2025.
“I could do the funniest thing right now,” he remarked. This comment came as Kalshi showed the odds of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings hitting the $1 billion milestone before November increased from 20% to 38% on Thursday.
Not long after Bukele’s message, Polymarket, a competing platform, introduced a similar betting opportunity, where the probability of reaching the $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 was estimated at 43%.
Kalshi Has Been Tracking Odds Since Mid-August
Kalshi’s prediction market regarding El Salvador achieving $1 billion in Bitcoin assets has been active since mid-August. Initially, bets that this milestone would be reached “before December 2025” hovered around 24%, while the “before November 2025” prediction remained near 18% until recently.
After a sharp increase to 38%, the “before November 2025” bet settled back down to 27%, while the “before December 2025” prediction maintained a level of approximately 35%.
Kalshi had been observing the likelihood of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days. In contrast, Polymarket launched its competing market shortly after Bukele’s tweet.
Related: Bitcoin Investment Firms Eye El Salvador, According to Government Regulator
“New on Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform announced on X, just hours after Bukele spotlighted Kalshi’s market on Thursday.
Cointelegraph reached out to both Kalshi and Polymarket to inquire about their market listing guidelines but has not yet received a response.
Concerns Surrounding El Salvador’s Bitcoin Portfolio
While both Kalshi and Polymarket are positioned to benefit from increased optimism regarding El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings, neither platform has established betting markets related to a previous controversy.
In July, Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes, president of El Salvador’s central bank, and Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina, the Minister of Finance, stated that El Salvador ceased Bitcoin purchases after finalizing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Related: El Salvador’s Legislative Body Permits President Nayib Bukele to Seek Indefinite Re-Election
Despite these claims, which were included in El Salvador’s official communication with the IMF, Bukele and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office continued to announce new Bitcoin acquisitions. Current reports indicate holdings of 6,282 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $709 million.
To date, Juan Carlos Reyes, president of El Salvador’s National Commission on Digital Assets, nor other parties contacted, have responded to Cointelegraph’s July request for clarification on this inconsistency.
This news emerges as prediction markets gain traction, with Toni Gemayel, a former executive at both Polymarket and Kalshi, announcing a $15 million funding round from investors like Coinbase Ventures for Clearing Company, a prediction market platform.
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