Journalist
Hassan Shittu
Journalist
Hassan Shittu
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Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, suggests the widely recognized four-year pattern in the cryptocurrency market might be a thing of the past.
During a recent conversation with Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chassé and ETF specialist James Seyffart from Bloomberg, Hougan proposed that the established trend is fading, possibly giving way to a more extended and continuous period of growth.
Historically, the cryptocurrency sector has experienced cycles linked to Bitcoin’s halving schedule, fluctuations in interest rates, and periodic market corrections. However, Hougan posits that these elements are becoming less influential.
Matt Hougan Foresees Prolonged Crypto Growth as Old Patterns Dissipate
In a
subsequent statement on X, Hougan highlighted the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings, pointing out that their influence decreases by half with each iteration. “Each halving event holds only half the significance of the previous one,” he explained.
The logic behind this assertion is that, as the absolute value of block rewards decreases, their effect on the overall supply diminishes relative to the cryptocurrency market’s expanding size. Thus, halvings are no longer the sole factor driving positive market trends.
He also mentioned that interest rate trends, which formerly hampered cryptocurrency progress during downturns such as those in 2018 and 2022, are now acting as catalysts, fueled by a more consistent and accommodating economic climate.
Hougan further emphasized that the potential for significant market disruptions, which previously determined cycles in the cryptocurrency space, has greatly reduced due to
better regulations and increased institutional engagement.
Hougan suggests that new factors are gaining traction, operating on longer timescales and not tied to halving years, replacing the conventional cycle.
Chief among these is the
growing investment in crypto ETFs. This trend,
which began in 2024, is only in its initial stages, he noted, and could potentially last for five to ten years.
The adoption by institutions is another significant trend. Hougan stated that pension funds, endowments, and national investment platforms are just beginning to explore cryptocurrency exposure. He anticipates that this trend will accelerate as more crypto ETFs receive approval.
He also highlighted progress in the regulatory environment. He believes that January 2025 signified the start of a new phase in industry policy-making. Hougan cited the recent enactment of the
GENIUS Act as a pivotal change.
He believes the legislation has paved the way for Wall Street to begin developing financial products centered around cryptocurrency, predicting that banks will invest billions in the coming years.
In his post, Hougan added that new developments, like the emergence of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, are shaping a different type of cycle. He believes these new models won’t mirror the sharp booms and busts of the past.
“I believe it’s more of a consistent, steady upswing than a supercycle,” Hougan wrote. “The long-term drivers in favor of crypto will overcome the forces that created the classic four-year cycle.”
Looking forward, he forecasts a strong year for crypto in 2026, though he cautioned that volatility should still be expected.
Bitwise CIO Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million Amid Policy Changes and Increased Institutional Backing
This isn’t the first time Hougan has suggested that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, characterized by significant shifts in finance and policy.
On December 13, 2024, Hougan
pointed out several key signals indicating this transition: BlackRock’s
recommended 2% allocation to Bitcoin in portfolios, the rapid adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and increasing public endorsement from financial leaders like Ray Dalio.
He also noted the increasing political acceptance of crypto, mentioning President Donald Trump’s vocal support for Bitcoin and
his attendance at a major industry event.
Moving forward to this year, Hougan
predicted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, propelled by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors.
“The final hurdle was cleared when governments became holders,” he stated. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer a concern; growth became the main objective.”
Hougan maintains that Bitcoin is currently in a new era, less speculative and more anchored in institutional and structural foundations.