Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged to a new high for the week, exceeding $112,000. This ascent suggests the potential for a renewed upward trend for the dominant cryptocurrency and may signal that the current market phase for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space is nearing its conclusion.
Well-known market observer CryptoBirb has pointed out that this bullish momentum might continue for roughly another 50 days. He emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current market cycle is about 95% complete, calculated from the lows experienced in November 2022, a period spanning 1,017 days.
Potential Bitcoin Peak in Approximately 50 Days
Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have typically culminated between 1,060 and 1,100 days following significant lows. This pattern indicates that the peak of this current cycle could potentially occur sometime between late October and mid-November 2025.
The analysis brings attention to the characteristic correlation between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent peaks in price. Since the most recent Halving, which took place in April 2024, 503 days have passed. Historical data reveals that price peaks typically appear within a range of 518 to 580 days following such events.
As illustrated in the chart displayed below, Bitcoin’s progress through this timeline is currently estimated to be between 77% and 86%. This places it within what the analyst calls the “hot zone”—a period distinguished by increased volatility and potentially substantial price fluctuations.
However, CryptoBirb advises that, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin tends to undergo a considerable correction after reaching a peak. These declines have often involved drops of 70% to 80% over approximately 370 to 410 days.
This bearish period is forecast to occur roughly during the first and second quarters of 2026, with historical data indicating a near certainty of a bear market taking place in that year. Before this potential downturn, the analyst anticipates one final push upward, with an estimated 50 days remaining before the market reaches its potential high point.
September, commonly viewed as a seasonally weaker month for Bitcoin, has historically seen an average decrease of around 6.17%. While third-quarter data can be mixed, showing a median increase of about 0.80%, the overall average typically indicates a decline attributed to more significant losses.
The traditional seasonal trend suggests that a challenging September might pave the way for stronger performance in October and November. The analyst has specifically highlighted September 17 as a key date to monitor.
Essential Levels of Support and Resistance
From a technical analysis standpoint, crucial support thresholds are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $95,900, and the 200-week SMA, positioned at $52,300.
Further technical observations derived from the daily chart include a 200-day breakout level at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has pinpointed local support between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance is located in the $113,000 to $114,100 range.
Looking at near-term and long-term indicators, both trading trailers currently signal a bearish outlook. CryptoBirb contends that a drop below the critical $107,000 to $108,000 range could intensify negative sentiment, potentially resulting in further corrections of approximately 20% to 30%.
On a positive note, cryptocurrency miners appear to be in a healthy position, with the cost of mining established at $95,400, indicating a stable market environment with limited risk of capitulation.
Finally, the analyst cautions about the possibility of the market reaching its peak, potentially leading into an altcoin season during October and November. CryptoBirb advises marking October 22 on your calendars, as this date could prove to be a significant turning point in Bitcoin’s current cycle.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at $112,886, which is roughly 11% lower than its all-time high.
Featured image created by AI, chart data from TradingView.com