Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery as the week concludes, although analysts foresee strong resistance in the near future.

  • The value of BTC could experience a significant decline if buyers cannot overcome the identified resistance barrier.

  • Using Fibonacci levels, projections indicate any potential downturn would likely be capped at around 10%.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $111,000 as the trading week wrapped up on Sunday. Market watchers have noted “encouraging” signals of a possible price upturn.

BTC/USD hourly price chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Potential Bitcoin Bounce Around $100,000 Considered “Logical”

Information sourced from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals BTC/USD increased by roughly 1% during the day, peaking at $111,369.

After recent US economic announcements, Bitcoin’s value dipped, but buyers maintained support above the $110,000 mark.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe commented on X, stating, “The current performance of $BTC is actually encouraging,”

“It has established a fresh higher low while maintaining support at $110K. Overcoming the $112K level could potentially ignite a significant bullish trend.”

BTC/USDT Chart with RSI
BTC/USDT daily chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Opinions among market observers on Bitcoin’s imminent price direction are still quite varied. Trader Cipher X has cautioned that a failure to surpass $112,000 could trigger further downward movement.

Another analyst, Crypto Tony, stated a decisive view depending on the weekly close, “Either we break through $113,000 and rally to new highs, or a rejection will lead to a drop towards $100,000.”

Trader TurboBullCapital highlighted the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), located at $115,035 and $101,760 respectively, as crucial thresholds to monitor moving forward.

A portion of TurboBullCapital’s X post concluded: “Should the $107k zone be breached, the target on the downside becomes the $101k zone, which aligns with the MA200.”

“This price range is a likely candidate for a price rebound.”

Bitcoin SMA Analysis
BTC/USD daily chart with 50 and 200 SMAs. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

$100,000 Considered as “Worst Case Scenario” for Bitcoin

As Cointelegraph previously reported, a popular theory involves the actions of market makers on exchange order books over longer durations.

Related: Bitcoin bear market potentially arriving in October with $50K bottom: Analysis

The theory suggests that short sellers and bears could be targeted for manipulation ahead of a substantial short squeeze, propelling the market to new record peaks. This pattern would mirror price movements from late 2024.

In the interim, Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a maximum decline of 10%, drawing from historical trends observed since late 2024.

Analyst ZYN noted, “$BTC typically finds its floor at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This occurred in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025, and is likely to repeat.”

“For those wondering how low we might go, the 0.382 Fibonacci level is currently around $100K. Thus, the most pessimistic outlook is a 10% decrease, preceding a 50% surge above $150,000.”

BTC/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis
BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: ZYN/X

This content is intended for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Trading and investing involve inherent risks, and individuals should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.