Key Points to Consider:
- Following a 19% decrease over three weeks, XRP is encountering significant resistance between $3.00 and $3.10. The critical support level lies at $2.65.
- Since July 9th, large XRP holders have sold off more than 640 million XRP tokens.
- The $2.65 mark corresponds to the quarterly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level. A dip below this could erase gains from Q3.
XRP (XRP) is experiencing a significant price correction after reaching its peak value for the year at $3.65 on July 18th. It has since fallen by roughly 19%, struggling to break through the $3.00-$3.10 resistance area.
On Saturday, the price briefly dropped to a key support zone between $2.66 and $2.80 before recovering on Sunday, establishing a higher low point.
Analysis of data from CryptoQuant suggests this pullback is partially due to substantial selling by major holders.
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Over the last three weeks, wallets belonging to XRP whales – those holding substantial amounts of the digital asset – have been gradually reducing their holdings.
Between July 9th and Tuesday, the 90-day moving average of whale netflows indicates a negative balance of 640 million XRP, which equates to around $340 million. This trend points to consistent selling pressure coinciding with the recent decline in price.
Analyzing XRP’s daily performance, well-known crypto trader Nebraskangooner suggests that the price of XRP could completely retrace its previous upward movement, potentially revisiting the base of the earlier rally at $2.
XRP Needs to Maintain $2.65 to Aim for New Highs
The $2.65 price point is vital for sustaining a positive outlook for XRP’s market position. Charts show this level previously acted as considerable resistance during the first half of 2025.
After eventually surpassing this level in July, it transitioned to strong support – a key shift in the market’s dynamics. Maintaining a position above this level is crucial to preserve the optimistic trend.
Crypto analyst Dom notes that XRP managed to hold above $2.80, a key area of initial interest, and is currently staying above $2.65, which corresponds with the quarterly VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price).
Related: Is XRP Poised to Repeat Its 70% Rally? Price Approaches Classic Breakout Pattern
VWAP represents the average price of an asset traded over a specific period, weighted by volume. It’s frequently used by traders to evaluate what constitutes a reasonable value.
Dom warns that any decline below this area would seriously damage the chart’s outlook, potentially negating any short-term positive setups.
Furthermore, technical analyst Mind Trader points out that XRP has completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its $3.65 high. Historically, if the 50% level holds, a renewed push could target $4.15, representing a new all-time high.
However, should XRP fall below $2.65, there’s a risk of it returning to its previous range and potentially retesting the $2 level, effectively erasing months of progress and indicating broader weakness.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investments and trading activities involve risk. Individuals should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.