For Bitcoin (BTC) to reignite investor enthusiasm and bring new money into the market, maintaining a price above $114,000 is crucial. This level is seen as a key indicator for breaking out of the current, tight trading range between $110,000 and $116,000.
A report released on September 11 by Glassnode points out that Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a “gap” since reaching a high point in mid-August. This constrained trading action could potentially derail the ongoing upward momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin is being pulled in different directions. Recent purchasers are experiencing losses, while those who invested earlier are cashing in their profits, creating a challenging environment for price movement.
The report highlights three main groups of investors that are influencing Bitcoin’s price. Firstly, there are those who bought near the peak in the past three months, holding their assets around the $113,800 mark. Secondly, there are investors who bought during price dips, accumulating their holdings near $112,800.
The third group consists of short-term holders who have been in the market for the last six months, with their holdings concentrated around $108,300. This creates distinct zones of support and resistance for Bitcoin’s price.
The price recovery from $108,000 has highlighted some underlying vulnerabilities in the market. Experienced short-term traders realized approximately $189 million in profits daily, accounting for a large share of all short-term holder gains (79%). These are investors who made purchases during the price drops from February to May and took advantage of the recent price increase to profitably exit their positions.
Losses Impacting Recovery
Recent buyers, facing losses, added to selling pressure by realizing daily losses, reaching as high as $152 million during the same period. This pattern is similar to what happened in April 2024 and January 2025, where buyers who entered the market at peak prices were forced to sell when prices declined.
The proportion of Net Realized Profit relative to the overall market capitalization hit a peak of 0.065% during August’s rally before decreasing. While the current level remains above average, it suggests that the support from incoming funds is not as strong as it was in earlier phases of the market cycle.
Net inflows into US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have slowed considerably since the beginning of August, now hovering around 500 BTC daily. This is a stark contrast to the large inflows that previously fueled Bitcoin’s upward movements.
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This deceleration removes a significant factor of institutional demand which propelled Bitcoin’s gains throughout 2024.
Derivatives providing stability
As spot market activity weakens, derivatives markets are becoming increasingly important in determining Bitcoin’s price. The Volume Delta Bias improved during the bounce from $108,000, suggesting that sellers were becoming less active across major futures exchanges, including Binance and Bybit.
The 3-month annualized futures basis remains below 10%, even with rising prices. This indicates cautious demand for leverage without excessive speculation.
Perpetual futures trading volume remains subdued, which is typical of market phases after periods of high excitement, rather than aggressive speculative activity.
Bitcoin options open interest is at record levels, as institutions are increasingly using derivatives for risk mitigation through strategies like protective puts and covered calls. Concurrently, implied volatility is decreasing, a sign of a more mature market with less speculative trading.
With these factors in mind, a decisive move above $114,000 would restore profitability for recent top buyers and attract new institutional investments.
Failure to maintain this level could put renewed pressure on short-term holders. In this scenario, the $108,300 level and, ultimately, $93,000, would become key targets for further price declines, as these areas represent major concentrations of buying interest.