The price of BTCUSD has startled the crypto market as it heads into the last week of September, dipping to $112,000.
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Bitcoin’s recent performance is underwhelming, leading some analysts to suggest it might test support levels nearer to $100,000.
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This price drop triggered the liquidation of over $1 billion in leveraged Bitcoin positions, marking the largest single liquidation event observed this year.
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Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, as upcoming inflation figures are anticipated.
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Online speculation is growing regarding a potentially significant announcement from US political figures that could impact Bitcoin.
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Data on Bitcoin’s profitability aligns with past bull market trends, with indicators hinting that a peak could be approaching.
Divergent Views on Bitcoin Price Support Levels
As the final week of September gets underway, Bitcoin’s price volatility is keeping traders on edge.
Following a period of price stability over the weekend, Bitcoin’s value experienced a sudden decline to $112,000, according to information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
The market is divided on how to interpret this price movement. Some analysts are anticipating further downside, while others believe it was a false dip and foresee a rally to new short-term highs.
Jelle, a well-known trader, commented on X, saying, “This is a key level being retested – after it was reclaimed earlier in the month.”
Jelle added, “If it holds this higher low, $BTC will likely target $120,000 next.”
Jelle described the $112,000 support retest as “very clean” and expressed a desire to see the price climb back to $116,000.
So far, #Bitcoin’s retest is looking very clean.
Ideally, price will return to the $116k area quickly – reclaiming $118k remains the key objective.
Until that happens, there’s no need to be concerned while Bitcoin trades within the current range. pic.twitter.com/W4S9qj7H5K
Captain Faibik, another trader, views the recent dip as the beginning of a more significant correction.
In an X post, he stated, “I already warned back in August that buyers would get trapped, and that’s exactly what happened. Late buyers got caught, and since then, #Bitcoin has fallen -13%.”
“From this point, I anticipate another bearish movement that could push BTC down towards the $100k region.”
The post included a chart illustrating a breakdown of a rising wedge pattern on the 
BTCUSD daily timeframe.
WhalePanda, a prominent crypto commentator, expressed disappointment at Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and US stock markets, which reached new all-time highs last week.
He pointed out that, “This last week we had $890 million of net inflows from ETFs, and Saylor bought more,” referencing the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings.
He further stated, “Bitcoin is flat on the weekly, with a rate cut, and all other assets, stock indexes, gold, etc., are showing strong gains. It almost seems like there are more than 21 million BTC in circulation.”
Record Liquidations Indicate Bearish Sentiment
Although it found support at $112,000 after a “mere” 2.8% decline, the recent dip in BTCUSD significantly impacted traders.
Leverage became a key issue on Monday, as a $3,000 drop in Bitcoin’s price led to over $1 billion in liquidations in the crypto market.
According to data from CoinGlass, liquidations reached $1.7 billion within 24 hours at the time of reporting, with $1.62 billion attributed to long positions.
CoinGlass confirmed to its followers on X that “This is the largest liquidation of long positions so far this year.”
The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode revealed that long positions were particularly vulnerable around the $113,000 level.
$BTC experienced over $100M in long liquidations as the price dropped below $115k, triggering clustered liquidation events.
Heatmap data shows concentrations around $113k–$114k, highlighting where leverage was most exposed.
🔗https://t.co/kizdWyZQ6n pic.twitter.com/fCwAHB1nRg
Daan Crypto Trades, a popular trader, observed that approximately $2 billion in open interest had been wiped out as a consequence.
He concluded, “A significant wipeout across the board. We now wait and look for indications of strength amidst the chaos.”
Looking ahead, some market observers believe conditions will worsen before the market recovers.
Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows cautioned that Bitcoin’s price may target a substantial block of bid liquidity before any upward movement.
He predicted that “$BTC has over $2,000,000,000 in long liquidations between the $106,000 and $108,000 level.”
He continued, “A sweep of this level seems highly probable in the coming weeks before any significant upward movement.”
Market Participants Await Powell’s Comments Amidst PCE Data Release
The Federal Reserve’s preferred method of gauging inflation is expected to be revealed this week, as financial markets consider new interest rate reductions.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data for August will come after multiple days of insight from Fed officials.
This will include a speech on the economic outlook by Chairman Jerome Powell at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon in Warwick, Rhode Island, on Tuesday.
Following the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 last week, markets will pay attention to Powell’s hints about future policy, in the hopes that risk assets will benefit from a more lenient direction.
The most recent figures from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggest that most believe the Fed will reduce rates again by 0.25% at its October 29 meeting.
In the latest edition of “The Market Mosaic” newsletter, Mosaic Asset Company cautioned that such an outcome is far from certain.
The newsletter stated, “Recent projections from the Fed indicate a few more rounds of rate cuts before the year concludes. However, these projections are far from unanimous.”
The newsletter continued, “Out of the 19 officials providing forecasts, seven did not see the need for further rate cuts. Central bank officials are divided by the potential threat of rising inflation and recent weakness in labor market data.”
The conflicting signals from inflation and the weak labor market make this week’s initial jobless claims data particularly significant, and relevant to those who are tracking volatility.
Major Political Announcement Regarding Bitcoin Expected
Rumors of a major political announcement out of the United States this week with the potential to impact Bitcoin are being closely watched while BTC struggles.
Crypto markets are in decline after reports of “major political news” circulated in social media, potentially because of market positioning ahead of that announcement.
While the nature of the news is uncertain, Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of the Satoshi Fund, has spoken plainly.
He claimed in a Sunday X post that the move, set to take place Tuesday, would “reshape the trajectory of Bitcoin politics.”
The crypto market has become attuned to announcements from US political figures in 2025, largely due to initial interest in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the disappointment when it failed to materialize. Initial speculation that the US government would buy a massive amount of BTC created traction, but declarations from the Trump administration failed to enact the policy.
However, as Cointelegraph reports, the notion remains live.
Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, wrote on X earlier this month, “I still believe there’s a strong possibility that the US government will formally announce this year that it has formed the strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) and is formally holding BTC as a strategic asset.”
Thorn suggested that the market has “underpriced” the potential reality of the SBR.
Last week, US lawmakers met with executives from the crypto industry, including Strategy’s Michael Saylor, with the SBR reportedly being discussed.
Profitability Data Suggests Bull Market Peak is Close
Focusing on long-term price behavior, new research suggests that the market is now in a state of “pre-euphoria.”
In a recent “Quicktake” blog post, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio had hit a critical level.
MVRV is determined by dividing the Bitcoin’s market capitalization by the value of the supply at the time that it last changed hands. This ratio indicates if the market is either under or over valued.
CryptoQuant used the 30-day rolling difference between MVRV values for coins held by long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin.
LTH-MVRV is diverging from the STH equivalent, suggesting that profitability is increasing for coins held for six months or longer. Contributor Crazzyblockk refers to this divergence as “pre-euphoria.”
Crazzyblockk said, “This phase has historically acted as a direct signal of the final, parabolic price surge of major bull cycles.”
An accompanying chart illustrates that each Bitcoin cycle’s peak was preceded by this kind of divergence.
The blog post further states, “Currently, the market is showing the same historical behavior. Since the 2022 bottom, we have been progressing through a healthy ‘Pre-Euphoria’ phase, setting the stage for a significant move.”
The blog post continued, “Importantly, the MVRV difference is in an upward trend, it has not reached the extreme levels that have been seen at the top of past markets. This would suggest that substantial potential remains, and that the cycle’s peak is still to come.”
This article does not contain financial advice. All investments involve risk, and readers should do their own research prior to making a decision.