Important Points to Note
Will Bitcoin’s Value Increase in the Fourth Quarter?
Market watchers suggest Bitcoin might experience an upswing in the final quarter of the year, provided it maintains a price above $107,000.
What Factor Could Trigger the Next Price Surge?
A resurgence in demand from large financial institutions, particularly through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), could shift the price trend in a positive direction.
After a drop to $108,000, Bitcoin (BTC) has erased its gains from September, marking a 7% decrease from the month’s peak of $117,900.
Compared to its all-time high of $124,400, the value of the cryptocurrency had decreased by around 12% at the time of this report, leading some to speculate about a market top.
However, analysts at Swissblock believe that Bitcoin’s underlying positive trend remains intact. They suggest that another upward movement is possible during the fourth quarter.
“Even with prices near $107,300, close to the previous low point from August, the overall structure is holding firm. Bitcoin is showing signs that it may be gearing up for one last push upwards.”
Source: Swissblock
According to Swissblock’s model, “high risk” conditions were present during the local peaks in July, mid-August, and mid-September.
However, at the time of writing, the model indicated a “low risk regime,” suggesting there’s room for potential growth before another local peak is reached.
Can Bitcoin ETFs Drive the Next Price Increase?
Despite Bitcoin remaining above $108,000, the price momentum has been negative. Swissblock points out that selling activity from long-term holders (LTH) is indicative of trends seen later in market cycles.
Source: Swissblock
The analytics firm suggests that if Bitcoin ETFs can absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders, the price may stabilize and potentially increase.
Unfortunately, demand for ETF products has decreased recently. September 22nd saw a significant Daily Outflow of $367 million.
This outflow increased to $418 million on Friday, bringing the total Weekly Outflows to $902.5 million.
Source: CryptoQuant
If these outflows continue, Bitcoin’s price may remain under pressure through the end of the third quarter. However, historically, the fourth quarter has been a strong period for Bitcoin, with average returns of 85%.
What’s the Potential Future for Bitcoin’s Price?
Will Bitcoin maintain its value above $109,000, which also serves as the realized price for short-term holders (STH)?
Looking at the price charts, the $107,500-$109,700 support range has been critical during the third quarter. If this range is breached, it could lead to a further drop towards $105,000 or even $100,000.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Before any significant downward movement can be confirmed, the On Balance Volume (OBV) needs to break below its second-half support level.
If this support range holds, a rebound is possible, particularly if the price closes above $112,000 on a daily basis. In such a case, $114,000 and $118,000 become the immediate targets for bullish traders.
Disclaimer: This information is not financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice. It represents the writer’s personal opinion only.