Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States are showing promising signs, kicking off October with their second-strongest week of investment inflows since their debut. This surge indicates a renewed sense of optimism among investors.
These Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs collectively amassed a net positive inflow of $3.24 billion over the past seven days. According to data sourced from SoSoValue, this impressive figure nearly matches the record of $3.38 billion recorded during the week concluding on November 22, 2024.
This marks a significant turnaround from the previous week, which saw outflows totaling $902 million. Market observers attribute this positive shift to growing anticipation of another interest rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve. This expectation has boosted overall sentiment toward investments considered to carry higher levels of risk.
Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at the digital asset platform Nexo, explained to Cointelegraph that rising expectations of a US interest rate cut have triggered a “shift in sentiment,” drawing fresh investor interest to Bitcoin ETFs. “This brings four-week inflows to almost $4 billion. At the current pace, Q4 flows could potentially remove over 100,000 BTC from the market – more than double the amount of new Bitcoin being created.”
He further noted that “ETF demand is picking up while long-term Bitcoin holders are selling less, which is helping BTC establish a firmer foundation” around crucial price support levels.
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These sustained ETF inflows could provide considerable positive momentum for Bitcoin in October, a month historically known for strong Bitcoin performance. Crypto enthusiasts often refer to October as “Uptober” due to this trend.
The substantial inflows this week pushed Bitcoin’s value past $123,996 on Friday, representing a more than six-week peak. TradingView data indicates that the world’s leading cryptocurrency last reached this level around August 14.
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000 could trigger a “very rapid climb” above the $150,000 all-time high before the close of 2025. He shared this perspective with Cointelegraph during an interview at the Token2049 event in Singapore.
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Analyst Optimism Grows for New Bitcoin Highs in “Uptober”
Bitcoin ETFs are now viewed as a key indicator of sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, potentially signaling a breakout in October, according to Kalchev.
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, driven by ETF inflows, seasonal trends, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.”
However, Bitcoin’s future trajectory hinges on several critical events in the coming week. These include an upcoming speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the publication of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the release of the US jobs report. However, the exact date of publication is dependent on the duration of the current US government shutdown, the first of its kind since 2018.
In the meantime, expectations remain high for Bitcoin’s performance this month, as October historically ranks as the second-best month for the cryptocurrency.
CoinGlass data reveals that Bitcoin has historically averaged monthly returns of around 20% in October, 46% in November, and approximately 4% in December.