Bitcoin’s potential for further gains is nestled within a comprehensive bull market, reminiscent of the economic boom of the 1950s rather than the 1990s. The driving force behind this phenomenon is the devaluation of fiat currencies, which is anticipated to continually steer monetary value toward stable, neutral assets like Bitcoin and gold. This is the central argument presented by seasoned macro analyst and investor Mel Mattison in a recent in-depth discussion on Milk Road Macro, released on Monday, October 7.
Mattison, a finance veteran with over two decades of experience in the fintech sector, suggests that investors are misinterpreting the current economic climate by drawing parallels to the 1970s and 1980s. He believes that earlier periods in economic history offer a more accurate comparison. “I believe the 1950s are the most comparable decade,” he stated, highlighting the S&P 500’s impressive average annual return of over 19% during that time, surpassing even the returns of the 1990s.
He characterizes the years 2024–2025 as an “across-the-board rally,” encompassing bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate. This surge is fueled by a long-term interest rate cycle and a widespread “debasement trade” that has now become a mainstream investment strategy. “What concerns me most is that major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are now echoing the sentiments I expressed a year ago,” he noted.
Bitcoin and Gold Positioned to Thrive in Era of Currency Debasement
Within this context, Bitcoin serves as a form of digital gold, one of two “neutral reserve assets” predicted by Mattison to attract increased monetary premium as the fiat system adapts to escalating debt levels and shifting geopolitical landscapes. He describes the present situation as a “gold war, not a cold war,” emphasizing the consistent growth of official gold reserves and the development of alternative settlement systems.
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“People are underestimating the potential; this is just the beginning,” he stated regarding the bullish outlook for both gold and Bitcoin. While he acknowledges that gold may be temporarily overvalued in the short term, he reiterated a long-term target, aligning with the views of other macro analysts: “Do I foresee gold reaching $20,000 within the next 10 to 15 years? Absolutely.” He suggests that Bitcoin, as the programmable equivalent, shares in this long-term upward trend: “I view Bitcoin as digital gold, and its acceptance is growing.”
Mattison’s long-term forecast is primarily based on policy frameworks. He argues that markets are undervaluing the US Federal Reserve’s legal obligation to maintain “moderate long-term interest rates,” along with price stability and maximum employment. “The FOMC operates under three distinct mandates: unemployment, price stability, and ensuring moderate long-term interest rates,” he explained, refuting the notion that the third mandate is of secondary importance.
In practice, he anticipates that this will lead policymakers toward interventions similar to yield-curve control (YCC) if necessary, to limit long-term yields and stabilize debt service. “There’s no way they can allow interest rates to spiral out of control,” he asserted, adding that the Fed could halt quantitative tightening and significantly expand its balance sheet without necessarily triggering a recurrence of the inflation experienced in 2021–2022.
“The Federal Reserve could easily increase its balance sheet to $20 trillion over the next decade without generating massive inflation,” he claimed, stressing that money supply growth and velocity, rather than the sheer volume of public debt, are the primary drivers of sustained price increases.
According to his analysis, this policy direction inherently favors assets with monetary characteristics. He dismissed recurring concerns about foreign entities selling off Treasuries: “When people talk about China or Japan selling, it doesn’t pose a significant threat,” he stated, arguing that domestic absorption—by banks, mutual funds, stablecoin balance sheets, or the Fed itself—can readily support issuance.
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He characterized interest payments as “stimulus,” preferring that they are recirculated to US holders rather than abroad. In this environment, he believes that index-heavy investment strategies will underperform active positioning in the emerging market leaders: “In my opinion, the greatest potential for alpha lies in gold and bitcoin,” with emerging markets also benefiting from more accommodating global financial conditions if YCC or similar measures stabilize US duration.
Markets Have Potential for Extended Growth
Mattison’s historical perspective also influences his assessment of risk. He draws a parallel between the current combination of post-pandemic fiscal-monetary coordination and geopolitical tensions and the period encompassing World War II, the Marshall Plan, and the Korean War. He anticipates that the rally will extend beyond mega-cap tech as artificial intelligence redistributes value away from traditional SaaS business models, but he also warns of a potential social-cohesion crisis—a future scenario where investors “not only want to reduce risk, but want to completely avoid it, even in gold.”
He believes that this event is not imminent: “I genuinely think that it’s at least 12 to 24 months away at a minimum, and possibly longer.” Until then, he urges investors not to underestimate the extent to which markets—and Bitcoin—can grow during a true bubble phase. “If you’ve never experienced the late 1920s or late 1990s, you can’t comprehend what the markets are capable of,” he stated. “In a bubble environment, which I believe we are entering, it can rise significantly higher and much faster.”
Why This Could Be the Biggest Bull Run Since the 1950s w/ @MelMattison1
Want to know how we survive $34T of U.S. debt?
Mel makes the contrarian case for why debt isn’t the problem… and why interest payments could actually stimulate the economy.
Tune in to know more
⏱ TIME… pic.twitter.com/TqZML1j9TZ
— Milk Road Macro (@MilkRoadMacro) October 7, 2025
Specifically for Bitcoin, Mattison’s model suggests that as long as policy trends toward easier financial conditions to manage public debt and geopolitical competition channels settlement into neutral assets, BTC will gain monetary value alongside gold. In the short term, he anticipates volatility – “in the very short term, gold is due for a period of consolidation,” he noted, indicating risk for correlated trades – but the long-term trajectory, he maintains, remains upward. “I’m not suggesting this time is different,” he clarified. “I’m actually saying this time is similar to all other times” – just beyond the recent memory of most investors.
As of the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $122,451.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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