An official inquiry was launched in Norway on October 10th, following suspicious betting patterns just before the announcement of the latest Nobel Peace Prize recipient. The investigation centers on a potential leak of classified details surrounding the prestigious award.
Authorities are examining unusual betting activity observed on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. The sudden increase in wagers suggests that individuals may have had prior knowledge of the Nobel Committee’s selection.
María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition figure, was named as the 2025 Peace Prize winner in recognition of her dedication to promoting democracy. The announcement followed a sudden jump in bets favoring her victory, raising red flags.
News outlets, including Bloomberg and various Norwegian publications, report that significant bets were placed on Machado’s win shortly after midnight, Norwegian time.
Investigators have identified at least one user, known as “dirtycup,” who placed approximately $70,000 in bets and reportedly earned around $30,000. Data reveals that two other accounts engaged in similar trading patterns, with the group collectively profiting about $90,000 before the official announcement.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, the head of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, expressed concern, stating that the situation “suggests we may be victims of a criminal act designed to profit from our internal information.”
The Nobel Committee, which had finalized its selection earlier in the week, has described the suspected security breach as a severe compromise of its strict confidentiality protocols.
This incident has reignited debate regarding prediction markets. While supporters argue they can aggregate crowd intelligence, critics are concerned about the potential for speculation and illicit activities when insider information is involved.
Polymarket has faced regulatory challenges in the past. In 2022, it restricted access for users in the United States following a determination by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that it was offering unregistered event-based contracts. The platform was eventually authorized to return to the U.S. earlier this year under the Trump administration, following regulatory approval.
The Nobel Institute has announced an internal audit to determine if confidential data was illegally accessed or distributed. Norwegian law enforcement officials have not yet indicated whether criminal charges will be filed.