The organization behind selecting the Nobel Peace Prize winners, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, is currently conducting an audit of activity on Polymarket. Polymarket is an online platform where individuals can place bets on the likelihood of various real-world events.
A recent report published by Bloomberg on October 13th indicates that the investigation was triggered by a surge in betting activity surrounding María Corina Machado prior to the public announcement of her as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, who leads the institute, has acknowledged the ongoing review. He has also suggested that it’s possible insider information was leaked prematurely, enabling some individuals to capitalize financially on the advance knowledge.
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Publicly available data from Polymarket shows that one user, going by the handle “dirtycup”, garnered profits exceeding $30,000 after wagering approximately $70,000 on contracts predicting Machado’s victory.
The Bloomberg report also highlighted three additional accounts that collectively earned around $90,000 through comparable bets.
Machado, a long-standing voice advocating for political change in Venezuela, received the award in recognition of her efforts to champion democracy and protect human rights.
In a statement from 2024, she remarked on Bitcoin
Polymarket, which launched in 2020, has evolved into a popular online platform where users of cryptocurrency speculate on potential outcomes across diverse sectors including politics, the entertainment industry, and global events.
In related news, Shayne Coplan, the individual who created the forecasting platform Polymarket, has recently joined the elite group of the world’s wealthiest people according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. Want to learn more about how this happened? Read the full story here.