Today’s crypto developments are heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors. The ISM Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. hit its highest point in over four years, oil prices plummeted after Washington canceled military actions against Iran, U.S. stock markets opened significantly higher, and Bitcoin climbed above $63,800. On the regulatory front, Bernstein released insights on the potential impact on cryptocurrency should the CLARITY Act fail to pass in the Senate.
Here’s a look at the key influences on the crypto market today.
Current Market Overview
The market shows a generally positive trend, although the increase is gradual rather than explosive.
Bitcoin is trading around $63,780, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.1% over the past 24 hours after defending the $62,500 support level during the weekend and recovering the $63,800 point during U.S. trading hours. Ethereum hovers close to $1,850, $XRP is at around $1.08, and Solana approaches $73. Notably, Cardano stands out this week, trading near $0.187 after experiencing a gain exceeding 14%.
Two factors are tempering this upward movement. Bitcoin continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which are approximately $64,680, $67,200, and $73,000, indicating a recovery amidst a prevailing downtrend. Additionally, market sentiment was affected by a Coldcard hardware wallet exploit that occurred over the weekend, resulting in the theft of roughly 1,367 BTC, reigniting discussions on self-custody security.
Impact of the ISM PMI on Markets
The July ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, an increase of 2.3 points from June’s 53.3 and significantly above the expected 54. This marks the highest level since May 2022 and the seventh month of sustained growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
The underlying data supports the improvement. Production surged to 58.5 from 52.2, New Orders increased to 56.7, New Export Orders turned positive at 53.0 from 48.5, and Employment rose above the line to 52.8 from 49.7. The only area that saw a decline was Inventories, which fell by 0.2 points.
The key figure for crypto traders is Prices Paid, which decreased from 73.0 to 71.1. The combination of robust growth and decreasing input costs creates an environment favorable for risk assets, indicating expansion without driving the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance.
Crypto X pointed out that this is the seventh consecutive reading above 52, a trend last observed in Q4 2020, right before one of the most significant bull runs in crypto history. It’s worth noting but should be regarded as contextual rather than predictive. The 2020 scenario was accompanied by zero interest rates and extensive stimulus, which are lacking in the current environment.
Effects of the Oil Price Drop on Stocks and Yields
The energy sector significantly influenced Monday’s optimistic market sentiment. President Trump announced over the weekend that planned military strikes against Iran were off, and discussions would resume, focusing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices experienced a sharp revaluation. WTI declined nearly 8% at its lowest point, trading in the mid-$78 range before stabilizing near $79.60, while Brent fell over 5%, reaching the low $83 range. OPEC+ contributed to this by approving an additional production increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September. Context matters; Brent prices surged about 25% in July due to geopolitical risks, thus this decline reflects an unwinding of that risk premium rather than a collapse in demand.
Stock markets took advantage of this shift. The Dow surged by 600 to 700 points in early trading, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained over 1%. Amazon crossed the $3 trillion mark in market capitalization for the first time, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped roughly 6 basis points to about 4.69%.
This sequence is particularly important for crypto: lower oil prices contribute to diminished inflation expectations, which leads to reduced yields, thereby providing more leeway for the Fed to initiate cuts.
Bernstein’s Insights on the CLARITY Act
This aspect of today’s crypto news is garnering significant attention on social media, so it’s essential to clarify.
Bernstein’s analysis team, helmed by Gautam Chhugani, stated in a Monday report that the chances of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are diminishing, as the Senate has only this upcoming week to consider what the analysts deem the most important crypto market structure bill in U.S. history. Galaxy Research recently lowered its estimates for the bill’s passage to 30%, while Polymarket traders now view it as approximately 31%, a decrease of 9 points over the month.
If the legislation is not passed, Bernstein’s base case isn’t optimistic for the short term. The analysts predict an immediate negative reaction across digital assets, suggesting the potential for another decline in valuations.
However, there is a positive outlook for what follows. Bernstein anticipates that the SEC and CFTC will expedite rulemaking under Project Crypto regardless, focusing on token classification, DeFi guidelines, self-custody regulations, and an innovation exemption for token issuance. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has publicly warned that if Congress does not take action, regulators will end up dictating all the rules, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins has indicated that his agency is prepared to step in to fill the regulatory void. Bernstein also expects the current market downturn to hit bottom by late Q3 or early Q4, coinciding with the midterm elections.
The bottom line: clarity in crypto regulations is on the horizon, but the legislative process is quicker and more sustainable, while the regulatory approach may lead to a market pullback initially.
What Should Crypto Traders Monitor Moving Forward?
- $64,100. CoinGlass liquidation data highlights a cluster of leveraged shorts between roughly $63,800 and $64,100, with further liquidity around $64,300, $64,800, and $65,000. A decisive break above $64,100 could trigger a short squeeze. Conversely, the most significant nearby support is located between $61,900 and $62,200.
- The Senate timeline. With only one week remaining before recess, a lack of activity leading up to this break effectively signals a no vote for the CLARITY Act this year, and Bernstein anticipates market reactions to reflect this trend.
- Friday’s job data. Projections estimate approximately 87,500 jobs added in July compared to 57,000 in June, with unemployment potentially rising to 4.3%. A weaker report paired with lower oil prices strengthens the case for rate cuts that crypto enthusiasts are counting on.
With robust economic growth, falling energy prices, and decreasing yields, along with regulatory changes in the works, the macroeconomic landscape for crypto this summer looks favorable. However, this doesn’t necessarily equate to the commencement of a bull run just yet.
Disclosure: This article was developed with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team prior to publication. All data and claims were verified against primary sources linked in the text.