XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) surged to $1.50 on the previous day, marking an increase of over 7% over the past week. This increase was fueled by a rise in trading volume that pushed the price past the $1.45 resistance zone. Currently, XRP is trading around $1.46, just above the $1.45 threshold, which had been preventing upward movement since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February.
Recently, Polymarket indicated that chances of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 had surged to approximately 80% last week and even hit 90% at one point during the weekend. However, these odds have since decreased to 62% following opposition from banking trade associations to a stablecoin compromise. With the Senate Banking Committee’s markup just three days away, XRP’s next movement may hinge on Thursday’s developments.
Reasons for the Drop in CLARITY Act Odds from 79% to 62%
Just three weeks ago, traders on Polymarket had estimated the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing at 46%. Following the scheduling of the markup for May 14 by Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott, the odds jumped to 79%. Over the weekend, they briefly reached 90% before contracting back to around 75%. As of Monday, May 11, they are trading at 62%, reflecting a 3% decrease in the past day.
The day after Scott announced the markup date, five key banking trade organizations, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, formally opposed the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin agreement. They contend that the language still permits crypto platforms to provide reward programs that resemble interest on deposits. Furthermore, they cautioned that yield-bearing stablecoins could diminish lending to consumers, small businesses, and farms by “20% or more.”
In response, Senators Tillis and Lummis expressed their disagreement publicly. Tillis posted on X, stating that “some in the banking sector may not favor either outcome, and we accept our differences of opinion.” Despite the bipartisan coalition’s firm stance, the banking opposition still influenced the market, resulting in a 17-point dip in Polymarket odds within 48 hours. Even with the current odds at 62%, they still lean towards passage, supported by a rival market on Kalshi at 69%.
Nonetheless, the uncertainty reflected in Polymarket is hindering XRP’s breakout—yesterday’s rise above $1.45 halted at $1.50 as sellers stepped in. With banks reigniting the debate just three days ahead of the vote, Thursday will be critical. The markup could either pass through the committee and sustain the breakout, or fail, pushing XRP back into the $1.30-$1.45 range that has contained it for most of 2026.
Potential Implications of the May 14 Senate Banking Markup for XRP
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to convene at 10:30 AM EST on Thursday at the Dirksen Senate Office Building for the bill’s markup. The committee consists of 24 senators, comprising 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats, with a requirement of 13 affirmative votes to advance the bill to the full Senate. This junction has stalled the entire CLARITY Act for several months.
Tim Scott aims to have all 13 Republicans on board—what he referred to as “the red zone” in an interview with Fox Business in April. Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana remains a holdout, and according to Punchbowl News, his reluctance is not related to crypto but stems from frustration over a stalled housing bill. If Kennedy does not join by Thursday, Scott will need at least one Democrat to reach 13 votes.
Opening statements on Thursday morning will be crucial—any hesitance from Republicans could indicate challenges ahead. The amendment count in the first half hour will be telling. An influx of amendments could signify that banks have swayed Republican votes away. The margin on the first contested vote will also provide insight; a 12-11 or 13-10 split keeps the bill moving forward, while a larger margin or a banking-aligned amendment’s success could signal the collapse of the compromise in real-time.
However, passing the committee does not ensure the bill becomes law. It still needs to progress to the full Senate, requiring 60 votes, and then undergo reconciliation with the House before reaching the President’s desk. The White House aims for the signing by July 4, but if the markup stalls on Thursday, the legislation could be pushed past the Memorial Day break starting May 21, with Senator Lummis warning at Bitcoin 2026 that missing this opportunity could push the bill to 2030.
XRP Price Forecast Depending on Thursday’s Vote Result
The price trajectory of XRP is closely tied to the outcome of Thursday’s vote.
In Case the Vote Passes the Committee
XRP surged past $1.45 following the markup announcement but faced resistance at $1.50, where sellers reemerged, driving the price back towards the breakout level. This level is challenged by 1.16 billion XRP held by investors at a loss, alongside $3 billion in sell orders positioned above it. Without new positive developments, the breakout may revert to the $1.30-$1.44 range. Therefore, securing a clean vote on Thursday is vital for this breakout.
If the breakout is confirmed, the cup-and-handle formation observed since the March 10 low of $1.15 suggests a target of around $1.65-$1.70. The 200-day moving average, resting at $1.80, also provides a target. A decisive move above $1.80 could see XRP rise past $2. However, for XRP to hit $3-$5 by year-end, more than just a committee approval is necessary. Complete Senate approval by July 4 and significant institutional investment in ETFs would be required.
If Thursday’s Vote Fails
Thursday represents the last feasible opportunity for the committee before the Memorial Day recess starting on May 21, as the full Senate will need roughly two weeks for procedural processes. If this window closes, the bill could be postponed until 2030. In such a scenario, XRP would miss out on its most significant driving force for the year and likely retreat to the $1.30-$1.44 trading range, with $1.28 acting as a key support level.
Will the May 14 Vote Propel XRP Higher?
The bottom line is that XRP may indeed see a price increase this week. The current 62% probability suggests that the more significant influence on price may not solely stem from the committee vote but also from Bitcoin movement. Should Bitcoin surpass $82,000 and see its dominance wane, it would likely benefit altcoins, including XRP. Some of XRP’s most substantial climbs last year coincided with Bitcoin’s strength coupled with a clear driving factor, which, in this instance, is the upcoming CLARITY Act markup.
However, the Thursday markup remains conditional. A straightforward committee vote would solidify the breakout, while a delayed outcome could drag the price back to the $1.30-$1.44 range and indefinitely stall the bill.
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