Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is currently valued at around $78,000, nearing the $90,000 mark but facing significant resistance from multiple factors. Each time Bitcoin approaches $90,000 since its all-time high in October 2025, sellers have intervened to drive the price back down.
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As Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, it’s tantalizingly close to the $90,000 threshold, yet several obstacles are lined up to hinder its progress. Since reaching a peak in October 2025, any time the cryptocurrency has attempted to break past $90,000, selling pressure has caused a retreat.
This situation arises because below $90,000 lies a convergence of the 200-day moving average, a significant group of trapped sellers, the distribution zone from January 2026, and increasing Treasury yields. Below, we explore the factors that could foster a Bitcoin surge past $90,000 and assess the likelihood of this occurring before the end of May.
Understanding a Resistance Cluster
A resistance cluster occurs when various signals, including technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and past price movements, indicate the same price range as a barrier. While a single resistance line can be broken if buyers gain enough momentum, a cluster of resistance is much tougher to surpass because it requires buyers to overcome multiple barriers simultaneously.
Since Bitcoin reached its peak in October 2025, it has consistently faced a cluster of resistance when trying to break through the $90,000 level due to several compounding factors.
Four Factors Making $90,000 Bitcoin’s Toughest Challenge
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price trajectory from $78,000 to $90,000 shows that it faces multiple resistance levels that have thwarted each recovery attempt since it fell below $90,000.
The 200-Day Moving Average Remains a Barrier
Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average stands at $82,455, with Bitcoin failing to close above this figure since it dipped below $80,000. Institutional investors view the 200-day MA as the dividing line between bullish and bearish market trends.
For Bitcoin to target the $90,000 level, it must first breach and maintain momentum above $82,455. Until that threshold is surpassed, the notion of reaching $90,000 remains speculative.
The January 2026 Distribution Zone at $97,000
Following its peak of $126,000 in late 2025, Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, with significant institutional selling occurring between $97,000 and $100,000 by January 2026. Large holders liquidated their positions to retail investors, who believed a price rebound was imminent. These retail investors are currently at a loss, hoping to break even and exit their positions.
Each time Bitcoin approaches this price region, those who are trapped in their investments tend to sell, making the $90,000 to $97,000 range the most saturated with sellers. Thus, even if Bitcoin surpasses $90,000, it encounters another wall of resistance that lies ahead.
The $90,000 High-Volume Supply Zone
Bitcoin remained at the $90,000 price point for an extended period during November and December 2025. Spending time at these price levels creates what traders refer to as a “supply zone,” which consists of individuals who purchased at that value and have since been in the red. As Bitcoin nears $90,000, these owners tend to sell off their assets to recuperate their losses.
Market analysis has revealed a substantial supply zone between $90,000 and $90,180, where Bitcoin has frequently struggled to maintain a breakout, despite brief surges. Market analyst Rick Maeda described $90,000 as a critical resistance point, indicating that a successful breakout could catalyze short-covering and increased buying momentum, contingent upon a decisive move above this threshold.
Increasing Treasury Yields Are Diverting Capital
This dynamic is particularly complicating the situation for Bitcoin in May. U.S. two-year and 10-year Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels since mid-2025 following unexpectedly high inflation data. Futures markets are pricing in a 44% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, a significant shift from earlier predictions of interest rate reductions.
Higher Treasury yields enhance the attractiveness of bonds while making Bitcoin less appealing, as Bitcoin generates no income and competes with cash-equivalent investments for institutional funding. As long as yields remain high, the crucial macroeconomic factors that often catalyze Bitcoin breakouts will be absent.
What Happens When Bitcoin Breaks Above $90,000?
Successfully breaking above $90,000 would pave the way for subsequent targets: $94,000 and then $97,000. The $97,000 level is critical as many large institutions sold heavily around this price in January 2026, creating a wall of sellers who have been waiting to recover their losses ever since.
Should Bitcoin manage to surpass $97,000, the next focus would be $100,000—a significant psychological barrier. Beyond this lies $107,000, a level Bitcoin occupied during the summer of 2025.
These key levels reside between $90,000 and Bitcoin’s all-time peak of $126,000, each posing its unique challenges. However, $90,000 stands out as the most difficult hurdle due to the density of sellers at that price point. Once Bitcoin absorbs this selling pressure and closes weekly above $90,000, the selling will begin to thin, making it easier to surpass subsequent levels.
Once Bitcoin navigates through the supply zone and sellers begin to exit the distribution shelf, the higher levels are likely to break more easily. A confirmed weekly close above $90,000, coupled with strong ETF inflows, would legitimize the movement and shift the focus directly to $97,000.
Will Bitcoin Surpass $90,000 by Month’s End?
We anticipate Bitcoin may approach the $90,000 level before May 31 but are skeptical it will maintain a close above that mark. Bitcoin has yet to close above its 200-day MA at $82,455, which is a crucial initial step. Moreover, the increasing Treasury yields create uncertainty that could stall the entire process.
If yields decrease before the month concludes, the macro conditions could improve, leading to a return of regular ETF inflows, thereby giving Bitcoin a viable opportunity to surpass $82,455 and build momentum towards $90,000 in June. Without this shift, discussing Bitcoin’s potential to breach the $90,000 resistance cluster this month may be premature.
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