XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has surged past the $1.40 mark today, bouncing back after falling to about $1.35 earlier in the week. The upcoming markup of the CLARITY Act by the Senate Banking Committee anticipated in May could be the key trigger XRP has been anticipating for some time…
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has managed to rise above $1.40 briefly today, recovering from a dip to around $1.35 earlier this week. The CLARITY Act is slated for markup in May by the Senate Banking Committee, which could serve as a vital turning point for XRP. However, Senate Chairman Tim Scott has yet to announce a specific markup date, and the Senate will begin its Memorial Day recess on May 21.
Should the markup not occur in May, XRP could miss out on this crucial opportunity, and institutional investors who are seeking legal clarity may hold back their investments. So, what could happen to XRP’s value if the CLARITY Act does not pass in May? Here’s an analysis of where we foresee XRP potentially trading in the event of another delay.
Implications of the CLARITY Act Missing Its May Deadline
The upcoming May 21 deadline for the CLARITY Act is significant due to the tight timeline that follows. After the May 21 Memorial Day break, the Senate will enter a week-long recess, leaving limited time for legislative action.
There are only three working weeks left in June and July, plus one in August, before a five-week recess leading up to September 14, and then a complete halt in October due to midterm campaign activities. If Tim Scott fails to schedule the markup before May 21, the bill’s chances of making any progress in 2026 shrink considerably.
Five steps remain between the bill and the President’s approval. Following the committee markup, the bill must undergo a Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, reconcile with a version approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee on January 29, align with the House-passed CLARITY Act, and obtain the President’s signature. Just the floor vote process could take two to three weeks, so the Banking Committee must finalize the bill by mid-May for a potential Senate floor vote in 2026.
Polymarket has been adjusting its odds, indicating a drop from 64% in mid-April to 46% today for the bill’s signing in 2026. Consequently, if the markup is missed on May 21, it may not happen until 2027 at the earliest.
Senator Cynthia Lummis remarked at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that if the markup fails in May, the new Congress would need to restart the legislative process, pushing any changes back to at least 2030. In any case, if the bill stalls, XRP will undoubtedly miss its most significant potential catalyst this year.
Potential Decline of XRP If the May Markup Misses
Today, XRP climbed back to $1.40, but has since fallen back to $1.39. The critical resistance point remains at $1.45, which has consistently blocked any attempts to surge higher. Should the CLARITY Act not undergo markup in May, XRP might revert to a sideways trading pattern and could fall as low as $1.
The likely scenario has XRP hovering around the $1.30-$1.40 range, seen over the past three months. If Tim Scott does not arrange for the markup before May 21, XRP may drop further to about $1.32-$1.35. The primary support level to watch is at $1.28, which has remained robust since the downturn in late February, following the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
For the XRP price to dip below $1.28 will require more than just a missed CLARITY Act markup. If Bitcoin falls under $70,000 in May or if tensions in Iran escalate further, XRP could test the psychological barrier at $1.20. Falling below $1.20 would see the next support level at $1.11, where XRP bottomed during the February decline.
Other Catalysts for XRP Not Tied to the CLARITY Act
In May, XRP has two significant drivers not reliant on the CLARITY Act’s approval: the upcoming change in the Fed Chair set for May 15, and the recent influx of institutional funds into XRP ETFs since April.
The first catalyst is the anticipated Fed Chair transition on May 15. As Jerome Powell’s term concludes, Kevin Warsh will take over after his nomination was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee on April 29 with a 13-11 vote. Warsh has been vocal about the Fed’s delayed rate cuts and may advocate for faster cuts once he steps into office. His initial FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 16.
The second catalyst relates to the resurgence in XRP ETFs seen in April. Following a record $31 million outflow in March, these funds attracted $82 million in April without any outflow days since early in the month.
Bitwise has surpassed Canary Capital to become the largest XRP ETF, accumulating $39.6 million compared to Canary’s $445,260. The flows indicate that institutional investors are actively participating rather than retail investors.
Although these two factors cannot match the potential benefits that the CLARITY Act could provide, they may help mitigate XRP’s downside in case the legislation does not pass.
Advice for XRP Investors If the CLARITY Act Fails in May
For XRP holders, the potential failure of the bill in May should not prompt selling. The bill’s eventual passage—whether it occurs in 2026, 2027, or later—is crucial for providing the legal framework that institutions need to invest in XRP.
Ripple’s CTO David Schwartz described the passing of the CLARITY Act as the “starting gun” during the XRP Las Vegas event. Ripple is pursuing advancements beyond the CLARITY Act—its application for a Federal Reserve master account is under consideration, and it already has conditional approval for its OCC banking charter. The Senate’s calendar is the key factor to monitor. If the markup is scheduled before May 21, XRP could test values between $1.50 and $1.70. However, if May 21 passes without a markup, questions about the bill’s viability for the current year will arise.
Ultimately, XRP is expected to remain within the $1.30-$1.45 range, even if the legislation does not succeed, and it may break out if broader macroeconomic conditions improve. A resolution of the Iran conflict could aid in a market rebound, allowing XRP to benefit regardless of the markup status.
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