XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is currently valued at $1.41, marking a 1.2% increase today, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has risen by 2.4%, surpassing $81,600. This is the first time Bitcoin has crossed the $80K mark since January 31. However, XRP, which was expected to reap significant benefits in capital rotation, has only realized about half of Bitcoin’s daily gain.
This article may feature links from sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing could receive compensation for actions taken through these links.
As XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades at $1.41 with a 1.2% daily rise, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), now above $81,600, climbs 2.4%. Bitcoin recently breached $80K for the first time since January 31. XRP, anticipated to benefit from shifts in capital, has only achieved around 50% of Bitcoin’s daily growth.
This situation extends beyond a single day. Historically, XRP has underperformed during Bitcoin surges, often capturing significantly less than what its volatility would suggest. The ongoing query on the minds of XRP holders is: where is the capital rotation expected to follow a Bitcoin surge?
Bitcoin Surpasses $80K as XRP Hovers Around $1.40
Bitcoin’s breakout past $80,000 occurred early Monday during Singapore hours, marking a new high since January 31. This surge was prompted by Trump’s “Project Freedom” aimed at de-escalating tensions with Iran, reigniting interest in crypto and oil markets after weeks of geopolitical instability. Bitcoin has since risen further, currently trading at approximately $81,600 with a 2.4% daily increase. On typical days, such Bitcoin rallies would elevate XRP and the wider market.
While XRP did experience a rise, it was only a small fraction of Bitcoin’s performance. The token is trading at $1.41, reflecting a 1.2% daily increase and a 2.7% weekly gain, compared to Bitcoin’s 7.2% weekly increase. This represents about a 37% return over the week—substantially lower than what XRP’s volatility usually generates during Bitcoin rallies.
The correlation between the two currencies over the past 90 days stands at approximately 0.63, and XRP generally aligns with Bitcoin’s trajectory. However, the extent of this alignment depends on unique catalysts for XRP. Presently, there aren’t any, as evidenced by the current charts.
This pattern isn’t just a singular occurrence; throughout the year, Bitcoin rallies have elicited only muted reactions from XRP while Bitcoin continues to climb. This repetitive trend has become evident, particularly as Bitcoin surpassed $80K only for XRP to capture less than a third of that weekly movement.
Bitcoin’s Dominance Hinders Altcoin Rotation
For capital to shift from Bitcoin to altcoins, the dominance of Bitcoin must peak and begin to decline—which is currently not the case. Bitcoin’s dominance, representing its share of the total crypto market capitalization, recently climbed to 60.66%, breaking out of an eight-month accumulation phase. This marks its highest point since April 2021, and the upward trend continues.
In contrast, the Altcoin Season Index, which measures how many of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day timeframe, currently sits at 37 out of 100, significantly trailing the 75-point threshold that signals a season for altcoins. Only 44 of these altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the same period, and most of their gains are negligible.
Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.97 billion in net inflows in April, marking the strongest monthly total for 2026, and have now seen five consecutive weeks of inflows. Every dollar invested in Bitcoin ETFs is one less that could have been allocated to ETH, XRP, or other altcoins that typically benefit from such rotation. Furthermore, XRP faces additional challenges that have exacerbated its underperformance relative to other altcoins.
Three Factors Contributing to XRP’s Lagging Performance
One significant hurdle for XRP is the supply wall located just above its current price. About 36.8 billion XRP—approximately 60% of its circulating supply—is held at a cost basis between $1.44 and $1.45 according to Glassnode data. Each time XRP approaches these levels, sellers looking to break even on long-held positions flood the market. Without sufficient new buying to absorb this supply, any upward momentum falters before surpassing $1.45.
This year, new investment in XRP from outside its existing holder base has been limited. The Delta Growth Rate for XRP, assessed over a 365-day moving average, stands at -111.7, indicating significant outflows. Consequently, XRP is reliant on its current holders for upward price movements, which have not succeeded in breaking the price from its established range.
Moreover, XRP’s valuation is traditionally linked to its status as a cross-border payment solution. However, transaction volumes on the XRPL have plummeted by 90% from their February 2026 peak. When transaction volumes decline this significantly, external catalysts like the CLARITY Act must carry the weight alone. There’s no supporting narrative around increased XRP usage, which means even favorable news fails to support XRP’s price as much as expected.
These three factors are specific to XRP and have a tangible impact on its price movement. This explains why XRP continues to lag, even when other altcoins are experiencing upward momentum—and indicates that more than a single positive development will be necessary to alter this trend.
When Will XRP Experience Altcoin Rotation?
The outcome hinges on a pivotal decision by the Senate Banking Committee, expected in the next two weeks. If the markup for the CLARITY Act is scheduled before the Senate’s Memorial Day break on May 21, XRP could finally secure the regulatory backing that institutional investors have been anticipating for over a year.
Thus, the CLARITY Act is presently the only significant catalyst that could influence XRP’s trajectory. Should the bill pass, institutional investments may surge, positioning XRP for a breakout in the latter half of 2026. Conversely, if progress stalls once more, capital may not flow into XRP until a new catalyst emerges.
For inquiries or corrections, please contact [email protected].