The price of XRP has encountered resistance at $1.35 on three separate occasions since late March, retreating to approximately $1.28 each time. However, it has recently surged past this level and is currently trading around $1.38, boosted by improved negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
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XRP faced rejection at $1.35 on three different instances since March, consistently dropping back near $1.28. The cryptocurrency has now successfully surpassed that threshold and is trading close to $1.38, following enhanced optimism in the crypto market resulting from ceasefire discussions between the U.S. and Iran. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has registered its strongest daily performance in several weeks.
While breaking through $1.35 is notable, sustaining this momentum and reaching back to $2 presents a different challenge altogether. XRP peaked at $2.40 in early January but has not approached that threshold since. What needs to occur for XRP to convincingly surpass $2 once more?
What Caused XRP to Rise Above $1.35?
XRP attempted to break through $1.35 three times since March but faced challenges due to the ongoing war and rising oil prices, which heavily influenced the market. A recent shift in conflict dynamics has positively impacted market sentiment, resulting in Bitcoin soaring past $71,000 and Ethereum experiencing a 6% increase to $2,255, while XRP exceeded $1.35—its highest mark in over two weeks.
Trump agreed to delay bombings in Iran for two weeks after intervention from Pakistan, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s foreign minister expressed approval of the agreement, as WTI crude oil prices fell from around $113 to below $95 per barrel. Traders who had been shorting crypto for an extended period experienced significant losses, with $196.7 million in short positions liquidated as the market rebounded.
As a result, XRP’s price surged 5% to reach $1.38, creating room for market growth during the two-week ceasefire period. With oil prices declining for the first time in over a month, XRP is now able to respond to its better underlying conditions and Ripple’s developments.
Can XRP Build on Its Current Momentum to Reach $2?
There are five significant resistance points between XRP’s current rate of $1.35 and the $2 target. The first resistance is the 50-day EMA around $1.40. Next is $1.45, a crucial level where approximately 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was purchased. This is a pivotal resistance point, as many holders who bought at this level may be inclined to sell at breakeven if prices return.
Should XRP surpass $1.45, it would next target $1.60. XRP previously hit $1.60 on March 17 when the SEC designated it as a commodity, but the selling pressure from underwater holders quickly drove it back down. This $1.60 level has capped XRP on two occasions since its plunge from the January peak, and breaking through here would signify a departure from the range it has been confined to since the onset of the conflict.
Beyond $1.60, the 200-day EMA is situated near $1.90. XRP has not been above this price since late February, and achieving this would signal a recovery from most losses endured during the conflict. If XRP can rise above $1.90, the psychological level of $2 would serve as the final barrier. XRP has not exceeded $2 since January, and breaking through this threshold could signal the start of a robust upward trend.
| Price | Resistance | Breakout Signal |
| $1.40 | 50-day EMA, which XRP has not closed above since March | Validates that the $1.35 breakout is holding |
| $1.45 | 60% of supply acquired here coupled with significant selling pressure | Clears the largest wall of sellers |
| $1.60 | Rejected on two occasions in March | Exits the range that confined XRP due to the war |
| $1.90 | 200-day EMA, where XRP has not traded above since late February | Recovers nearly all gains lost due to the conflict |
| $2.00 | Psychological barrier that could indicate a turning point for a rally | The sell-off from $2.40 has concluded |
The current ceasefire is set for a two-week pause, meaning it does not guarantee a resolution to the conflict. If the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens and oil prices approach pre-war norms, the selling pressure across the entire crypto arena could diminish, allowing XRP to make significant gains past $1.45, $1.60, and beyond.
What Are Realistic Projections for XRP in April?
If the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens within the next two weeks, XRP could break through the $1.45 resistance and attempt to reach $1.60. Furthermore, if the CLARITY Act successfully navigates the Banking Committee by late April, which is the Senate’s target upon returning on April 13, XRP could surpass $1.60 and even approach $1.80, potentially leading to a resurgence of institutional investment in ETFs.
For XRP to ascend above $2 in April, the ceasefire would need to evolve into a lasting agreement, the CLARITY Act must progress, and the Federal Reserve should provide a dovish indication in the FOMC meeting on April 28-29. Conversely, if the ceasefire collapses without a resolution, XRP might revert below $1.35, retesting the $1.28-$1.30 range it had previously occupied.
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