XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has engaged in a prolonged struggle over the past few weeks, nudging its way towards $1.45 before retreating as sellers consistently emerge beyond that threshold. Many traders monitoring the price action have begun to view this mark as an obstacle to XRP’s recovery. However, $1.45 merely hints at challenges that lie ahead at higher price points.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been engaged in a prolonged struggle for several weeks, inching toward $1.45 only to witness pullbacks as sellers continuously appear above this price range. Observers of the price chart are starting to categorize this threshold as a barrier to recovery for XRP; yet, $1.45 is just a sneak peek at the significant levels positioned two rungs above it.
The focal resistance lies between $1.76 and $1.80. Data from Glassnode indicates that approximately 1.85 billion XRP, valued at about $2.83 billion, was purchased within the $1.76 to $1.80 range. This underscores the presence of numerous sellers just above $1.45, who tend to sell during minor price increases, hampering XRP’s upward movement.
What will it take for XRP to finally surpass $1.45 and break through the crucial $1.76 resistance?
Understanding the Barrier at $1.76 and XRP’s Struggles to Surpass It
Around 1.85 billion XRP was acquired between $1.76 and $1.80, amounting to nearly 3% of the total circulating supply at that price point. Many holders who purchased at this level back in January have continued to face losses.
After months of seeing their investment decrease, it’s likely that many of these holders will choose to sell as soon as they can return to breakeven, rather than hold out for further gains. This significant selling sentiment contributes to the resistance at $1.76, although it’s not the only challenge.
On March 8, Glassnode reported that about 36.8 billion XRP—representing roughly 60% of the circulating supply—was held at a cost basis below the average of $1.44, resulting in unrealized losses nearing $50.8 billion. This highlights that many XRP investors who bought at higher prices are currently facing losses and are likely to sell into price rises to recoup their capital, keeping XRP constrained beneath the pivotal $1.45 resistance.
Steps XRP Must Take Before Hitting $1.76
Currently, XRP trades around $1.37 to $1.40, and it only needs to overcome a preliminary obstacle. The overall average cost basis for XRP holders is approximately $1.44, meaning many investors are poised to break even at that price. Each time XRP edges closer to $1.45 in March, selling pressure mounts, as holders who have been losing money for an extended period are unlikely to miss the chance to exit at breakeven.
Should XRP successfully absorb the selling pressure and maintain a position above $1.45, $1.55 will be the next target. This represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from January’s decline, and a daily close above it would mark the first higher high for XRP since the onset of the downturn—offering a genuine sign that the downtrend could be subsiding.
Once above $1.55, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits near $1.64, aligning with the upper edge of the descending channel that has restricted every rally since February. Surpassing the $1.64 barrier with notable volume would signal a potential shift in trend, confirming the start of an uptrend.
Between $1.64 and $1.76, the cost basis heatmap shows a thinning of congestion. There are no significant concentrations of trapped holders in that area, indicating that once XRP breaches $1.64, the ascent toward $1.76 could unfold rapidly due to less overhead resistance.
The core issue is that XRP at $1.37 currently lies below all four major exponential moving averages: the 20-day at $1.46, the 50-day at $1.64, the 100-day at $1.85, and the 200-day at $2.08. When all four EMAs stand above the current price, it suggests that the trend is exerting downward pressure on any attempts to recover, and gaining even the first one requires sustained buying that has not yet materialized.
Potential Outcomes for XRP Beyond $1.76 — What If It Doesn’t Breakthrough?
For XRP to achieve the $1.76 mark, it must first overcome $1.45, then confirm a higher high by clearing $1.55, and subsequently flip the trend by breaching $1.64. Potential catalysts that could propel it through these three resistances include Bitcoin surging to between $75,000 and $80,000—triggering a rally in altcoins—and the passage of the CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a digital commodity, paving the way for institutional investment.
Even so, breaking through $1.76 demands substantial sustained buying to absorb the $2.83 billion in overhead supply from holders eager to breakeven. ETF inflows would need to reverse current outflows and consistently reach at least $250 million each month—similar to levels seen in late 2025—to generate the necessary momentum over the following months.
If such conditions occur and XRP breaks $1.76 on strong volume, the next resistance level would be the 100-day EMA around $1.85, followed by $2.00, and then the 200-day EMA at approximately $2.08. XRP has not traded above the 200-day EMA since January, and achieving that benchmark could lead the market to view the movement as a genuine recovery instead of a fleeting rally.
Conversely, if $1.76 holds firm, XRP may retrace through the same levels it previously struggled to overcome. The $1.64, $1.55, and $1.45 marks could revert to resistance, potentially settling the price within the $1.35 to $1.40 range, an area where new accumulation is already taking shape.
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