Bitcoin (BTC) is deviating from usual bear-market trends as a significant on-chain metric records its longest bullish period of 2026.
Highlights:
- The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for Bitcoin has remained above the critical level of 1 for three consecutive weeks, marking its longest duration this year.
- Analysis indicates that the profitability of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) signals a potential return to bullish market conditions.
- David Puell expresses concern that despite the positive SOPR trends, more declines in Bitcoin’s price may still occur.
SOPR Data Mirrors Bullish Market Behavior
According to data from the cryptocurrency analytics platform CryptoQuant, the SOPR has sustained its position above 1 since August 19. This metric evaluates whether the coins being transacted on-chain are priced higher or lower than their previous transactions.
The current reading of SOPR is 1.002, indicating that most transactions are occurring at a profit, which suggests a positive market sentiment. This bullish streak has continued for three weeks, making it the longest bullish signal of SOPR in 2026.
SOPR chart for Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant
The SOPR metric can be dissected by wallet groups to assess profitability among newer versus older investors. Onchain analytics platform Checkonchain noted that the readings for short-term holders (STHs)—wallets retaining UTXOs for no longer than six months—support the notion that Bitcoin might be poised for a sustained recovery.
“In bear markets, price recoveries often lead to selling, while in bull markets, brief dips below break-even typically attract buying. The current situation resembles the early phases of a bull-market recovery,” they tweeted over the weekend.
STH-SOPR data for Bitcoin. Source: Checkonchain on X.com
Puell Maintains Caution Despite Positive SOPR Trends
Despite Bitcoin’s price remaining within a range around $80,000 while the SOPR continues its upward trend, notable industry analyst David Puell warns that new macro lows could still be on the horizon for BTC/USD.
Related: Emerging Bitcoin whales create sell-side risks as unrealized gains reach $9 billion
In a recent interview with CryptoQuant on September 4, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell, known for developing the Puell multiple BTC price indicator, emphasized the need for more evidence before concluding that the current bear-market floor is already established.
When discussing Bitcoin’s recent 25% increase in August as we approach Q4, Puell indicated that additional upward movement seems less probable.
“Currently, we consider this a downside risk,” he remarked.
Puell highlighted the importance of sustained SOPR signals for modifying his long-term outlook, stating that the metric must consistently remain above 1, with investors realizing profits without a subsequent drop to lower price points.
Furthermore, Bitcoin needs to establish a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a trend that Cointelegraph reported is still absent in weekly analyses.
At the end of August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that, based on the latest readings from its proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the bear market might already be considered “over.”
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