(Kitco News) – Cryptocurrency analysts and professionals within the industry have adopted a more cautious approach to their market forecasts compared to the same time last year. This more tempered outlook isn’t surprising in light of the performance of digital assets during the last quarter of 2025. While there remains optimism about Bitcoin potentially eclipsing its peak of $126,000 in October 2026, discussions have increasingly moved from mere token prices to the technologies and protocols that underpin them, reflecting a gradual integration of blockchain into the traditional financial sector.
Key Trends and Themes for 2026
Experts highlight the integration of AI across the crypto landscape as a leading trend for the upcoming year, but the pivotal question lies in how that will manifest.
“Decentralized AI (DeAI) will emerge as a headline topic in 2026, providing solutions to the global energy challenges that centralized AI systems impose,” predicted Greg Osuri, Founder of Akash. “DeAI directly addresses the primary obstacle to AI advancement: energy consumption. Centralized Large Language Models (LLMs) are reaching their scalability limits. As these thresholds become evident in 2026, the industry will increasingly shift towards decentralized solutions. AI could become one of the main applications of Web3, necessitating models that are both independent and scalable, achievable only through decentralized networks.”
In light of growing geopolitical issues, Osuri anticipates a significant turn towards anonymity, making privacy an essential requirement. “We might witness the emergence of ‘User-Generated AI,’ focusing heavily on authenticity and the ability to distinguish between real and fake content—an issue blockchain is uniquely positioned to resolve,” he explained. “At the same time, ‘Physical AI,’ encompassing robotics and embodied AI, will gain mainstream traction. I predict that 2026 will mark a pivotal moment for physical bots, akin to the mass acceptance we observed in 2023.”
“In 2026, we expect a shift from broad, generalized AI models to tailored, verifiable intelligence,” stated Jiahao Sun, CEO of FLock.io, in an interview with Kitco News. “It could very well signal the rise of Auditable Intelligence, where the market mandates proof of privacy and authenticity.”
“2026 is set to be a hybrid space for crypto,” noted Marlon Williams, Founder of DexTrader.ai, an AI-driven investment platform. “One segment of the market will become sharper and faster: AI scanning for signals and executing trades at lightning speed. The other side will stabilize: Tokenized real-world assets are drawing in traders seeking on-chain exposure without the extreme volatility associated with traditional cryptocurrencies. Treasuries, commodities, and even structured credit turned into tokens are likely to provide a stabilizing force while remaining integrated within crypto frameworks.”
Christopher Jensen, VP of Digital Assets Research at Franklin Templeton, expressed to Kitco News that 2026 will witness Web3 wallets evolving beyond mere storage, functioning as intelligent financial operating systems.
“These systems will enable users to set spending protocols, automatically adjust portfolios, track subscriptions, and receive real-time risk notifications, all while incorporating tools for tax, compliance, and reporting,” Jensen noted. “This fundamentally alters how everyday investors interact with on-chain finance, making it feel more seamless and user-friendly. Moreover, regulated markets are likely to introduce around-the-clock trading products linked to major stocks and ETFs, creating a global 24/7 equivalent of Wall Street, which not only enhances access but also improves risk management for investors globally.”
The focus among experts is increasingly shifting from Bitcoin to stablecoins, with an emphasis on their regulation, adoption, and utility in both domestic and international contexts.
Bitcoin Takes a Backseat Amid Risk-Averse Market Conditions
Despite 2025 being a stellar year for Bitcoin, reaching a record high of $126,000, the new year brings a softer outlook. Industry experts believe that BTC is establishing a robust foundation in anticipation of the next bull market phase, though many stop short of guaranteeing a dramatic surge for 2026.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, indicated in his 2026 forecast that signals for Bitcoin entering the new year are “mixed but constructive,” advocating for a more restrained evaluation instead of overly optimistic narratives.
Sigel’s caution is partially grounded in Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which tends to peak soon after U.S. presidential elections and remains consistent after the substantial gains seen in October 2025.
He suggested that the upcoming year is likely to feature lateral movement rather than a return to the preceding upward trend.
“That pattern indicates that 2026 will probably be a consolidation period,” he remarked. “It won’t be a melt-up, nor will it collapse.” He further added that global liquidity levels do not favor a straightforward bullish scenario. “Global liquidity is mixed,” he noted, expressing that while anticipated rate cuts might offer some support, “U.S. liquidity is tightening somewhat.”
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, refrained from providing a specific Bitcoin target for next year.
“BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027,” he stated in a post on X on December 21. “However, the turbulence of 2026 makes it difficult to make predictions, although new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026 remain a possibility.”
Thorn added that options markets are indicating equal probabilities of Bitcoin reaching either $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026, and an equal chance of hitting $50,000 or $250,000 by the year’s end. These broad ranges illustrate the uncertainty surrounding near-term market movements.
“Currently, the broader crypto space is ensnared in a bear market, and Bitcoin is struggling to re-establish its bullish momentum,” he stated. “Until Bitcoin firmly exceeds the $100–$105,000 mark, we believe the risks in the near term remain downward. Other overarching market factors contribute to this uncertainty, such as the rate at which AI capital expenditures are deployed, monetary policy circumstances, and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November.”
Thorn observed that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a mature macro asset rather than a high-growth speculative investment. “2026 could be a subdued year for Bitcoin,” he suggested, although he noted, “whether it ends the year at $70,000 or $150,000, our long-term bullish outlook is strengthening.”
“The combination of enhanced institutional access, a relaxing of monetary policies, and a market actively seeking assets to hedge against dollar depreciation could see Bitcoin increasingly follow gold in becoming a widely accepted monetary hedge in the next two years,” he summed up.
Charlie Morris, CIO and founder of ByteTree, highlighted in an interview that Bitcoin’s strong ties with the tech sector pose challenges for its near-term prospects.
Morris refers to Bitcoin as “the internet’s reserve asset,” yet he does not believe it needs to achieve mainstream status for his long-term bullish stance.
“Why should Bitcoin serve as the reserve asset for the real world, and why should gold not be the reserve asset of the internet?” he pondered. “People are anticipating that central banks will start purchasing Bitcoin. That’s unlikely to happen, at least not in my lifetime, nor in anyone else’s. Gold has traditionally fulfilled that role.”
The sentiment surrounding these two assets reflects a stark contrast in investor attitudes currently.
“Bitcoin is significantly oversold at the moment; it has faced worse conditions in the past,” Morris observed. “Meanwhile, gold and silver are in a state of being overbought, although they have seen higher levels of overvaluation before. One asset is in demand, while the other is not—that’s quite evident.”
Morris expressed concern that both AI and tech sectors are overvalued and due for corrections. “I anticipate a downturn for tech markets, as they have been performing too strongly for a prolonged period,” he asserted. “AI is witnessing a frenzy in terms of capital investments and returns on net capital, leading overvalued stocks to an unsustainable level.”
“What we are observing is an unprecedented momentum bubble in equities; the extension of positive momentum hasn’t been seen in at least two and a half decades,” he added. “Given Bitcoin’s correlation with tech, I foresee anything related to the internet taking a breather.”
Sid Powell, CEO and Cofounder of Maple Finance, mentioned to Kitco News that while Bitcoin inevitably cycles, the current one appears healthier and more resilient.
“The present pullback resembles a reset that strengthens the foundation rather than signaling deeper issues,” he explained. “This time, the nature of demand is different. ETFs, institutional investors, and long-term holders have fundamentally altered market dynamics, fostering quicker stabilization and recovery. This bodes well for future rebounds.”
Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, noted that 2025 witnessed Bitcoin capturing increased institutional interest.
“This year, most Bitcoin trading activity stemmed from large, institutional transactions rather than retail engagement,” he clarified. “If this trend continues, Bitcoin cycles could become less speculative and more influenced by macroeconomic factors, resulting in shorter, less severe pullbacks. Heightened institutional participation will likely lead to more stable demand, reduced volatility, and faster recoveries after setbacks, which may pave the way for a resurgence in 2026.”
Shift in Focus from Altcoins to Protocols in 2026
The early months of 2025 were marked by enthusiasm centered on tokens, while the latter part of the year saw a downturn in crypto valuations. Experts anticipate that focus in 2026 will pivot back to the underlying protocols and projects, emphasizing their real-world relevance.
Santiago Roel Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion, believes the most significant revelation in 2026 will not be a breakout token. “Instead, it will be the realization that a broad array of Layer 1 assets continues to lag due to a lack of demand at the foundational level,” he noted. “Ethereum, in particular, has come to resemble a mature entity rather than one poised for rapid growth, showing strong brand recognition without meaningful benefits from increased usage—a surprise for traditional investors who buy ETFs or DATs, expecting Ethereum to be a universal solution for stablecoins and tokenization.”
In contrast, returns will be concentrated higher up the stack. “Layer 2 solutions and application-layer protocols are expected to outperform since they are directly aligned with actual usage,” Santos predicted. “Tokens that excel are likely to be those linked to stablecoin expansion and on-chain perpetual trading. They are fundamentally better situated than narrative-based tokens. Revenue will become important once again.”
“The uncomfortable reality is that many tokens fail not due to a lack of usage, but because value capture mechanisms do not function as intended,” he further added. “Consequently, I forecast that a collection of crypto-related equities will outperform a variety of crypto tokens this year. Equity structures tend to secure growth more effectively.”
Santos observed that Bitcoin will likely outperform others since it does not compete with AI for investors’ attention like many other cryptocurrencies do. “Everything beyond Bitcoin is tussling for the same investment allocation,” he said. “Bitcoin exists in a category of its own.”
Michael Hubbard, Interim CEO of SOL Strategies, also described a shift toward utility and the intrinsic value of blockchains as interconnected platforms.
“The volatility and speculatory behavior surrounding Layer 1 tokens like SOL or ETH is diminishing, with growing attention on their practical applications for things like real-world asset tokenization and decentralized physical infrastructure,” Hubbard stated. “With the increasing tokenization of stocks on Solana, we can expect blockchain adoption to accelerate further in 2026, especially as large, well-established companies look to transform their operations using blockchain technology.”
“The most surprising developments are likely to emerge from sectors gradually building real revenue streams,” Powell asserted. “Tokenized credit, on-chain fixed income, and infrastructures linked to real-world assets are gaining momentum because they address clear challenges while generating yield. As capital becomes increasingly selective, projects demonstrating genuine user engagement and sustainable economics will stand out. This may reduce the total number of tokens in circulation but enhance the performance of those aligned with tangible financial activity.”
Simplicity, Transparency, and Privacy Will Lead Industry Progress in 2026
Insiders in the digital asset space foresee a more mature business landscape where technology supersedes tokens as the focal point, with increasingly sophisticated clients demanding rigor from digital asset firms.
According to Alexis Sirkia, Chairman of Yellow Network, the trend for 2026 will center around efficiency and simplification.
“The industry is starting to understand that Layer 1 blockchains possess less processing capability than systems from the 1980s,” he commented. “Thus, the true innovation lies in moving beyond on-chain settlement for every interaction, embracing simpler architectures for rapid peer-to-peer communication instead. We are witnessing the inevitable rise of TrustFi, where advanced distributed ledger technology integrates seamlessly with traditional finance to streamline markets and offer the security necessary for institutional brokers.”
“Crypto’s next target should be to equip developers with a genuine utility layer that delivers the user experience reminiscent of Web 2.0 while upholding the trustless qualities of Web3, enabling the creation of fully automated organizations powered by smart contracts,” Sirkia added.
“2026 will also be the year when emerging projects must demonstrate that their offerings fit the market before focusing on liquidity,” Osuri advised. “They will have to build solutions that address real needs, rather than merely those that can be tokenized.”
Patrick Gerhart, President of Banking Operations at Telcoin, flagged that a major development to keep an eye on in 2026 will be how swiftly regulated institutions transition from exploring digital assets to actively deploying them.
“Previously, banks and payment companies exploring blockchain technology are now identifying areas where it can replace traditional systems, particularly in the realms of stablecoins, settlement, and cross-border payments,” he elaborated. “We can also expect consolidation among infrastructure providers as the regulatory landscape tightens, leaving only the most compliant and well-capitalized players to thrive. Regionally, the U.S. is quietly regaining its leadership, particularly at the state level. States like Nebraska built momentum in 2025, and we anticipate more states joining the discussion, bringing with them clearer frameworks that will catalyze further innovation.”
Yuval Rooz, co-founder and CEO of Digital Asset, creator of the Canton Network, emphasized that the real narrative in 2026 will revolve around the velocity of assets rather than their price points.
“A significant infrastructure transition is underway, as the world’s largest custodians move from ‘crypto pilots’ to full-scale production networks,” he noted. “The goal now is collateral mobility—the ability to instantly transfer high-quality assets like U.S. Treasuries around the clock across privacy-enabled ledgers for margin compliance. 2026 could be the year when institutional DeFi addresses the T+1 settlement challenge effectively. We expect a divergence where public chains facilitate speculative retail activities, while a separate, privacy-oriented layer processes trillions in regulated security transactions.”
Powell concurs that institutional interest will continue to rise, translating increasingly into actual usage rather than just pilot programs. “Consolidation will reinforce the market as capital and talent consolidate around working platforms,” he asserted. “While failures will undoubtedly occur, they will likely be absorbed without causing systemic disruptions, indicating that the industry is maturing. One positive revelation may be how swiftly on-chain markets become normalized within global finance rather than remaining isolated as a separate category.”
Yaqub Ahmed, Franklin Templeton’s Global Head of Workplace, Retirement and Wealth, anticipates major breakthroughs in retirement planning.
“I am enthusiastic about how digital assets and blockchain technology can revitalize the retirement sector in 2026,” he stated. “Rather than viewing crypto as an isolated asset class, the substantial change will lie in how blockchain frameworks enhance plan customization, diversity in income streams, portable benefits, and digital-first financial instruments that resonate with how younger generations currently handle their finances. Throughout the industry, one clear message emerges: the existing retirement framework is ill-suited for today’s lifestyles and work patterns. The future will align with calls for improved data integration, visibility across accounts, smarter automation to minimize friction, and a shift towards wallet-based infrastructure that offers advisors a comprehensive view of clients’ financial landscapes. In this context, crypto’s role will shift from one of volatility to contributing to personalized retirement solutions that reflect income levels and life stages.”
Williams forecasts continued integration and operational use of AI in cryptocurrency trading.
“There’s a growing demand for AI-assisted trading, particularly among crypto traders who appreciate being active in dynamic markets,” he remarked. “I’ve engaged with enough traders this year to sense a prevailing sentiment—they find charts move too swiftly, orderbooks are too dense, and manual interventions feel inefficient now. They do not wish for AI to replace them; they want it to keep pace with them.”
A pivotal tension in this evolution is the contrast between centralized, opaque systems and community-driven, transparent models. “The industry is becoming more aware that centralized AI poses a singular point of failure, a ‘black box’ incompatible with the future of data ownership,” Sun stated in an interview with Kitco News. “The true transformation in AI is not in the expansion of proprietary models but in developing transparent, auditable, community-driven ones. This change is as inevitable as the transition from Web2 to Web3.”
“Many specialized, decentralized AI models are already operational in critical sectors like healthcare and finance with governance via blockchain,” he continued. “These targeted solutions will outperform centralized general AI models by tackling crucial aspects of data sovereignty, regulatory compliance, and domain-specific correctness. Market responses will reward protocols that deliver tangible real-world results, making industry-specific DeAI the most promising sector in the coming year.”
Filip Dragoslavic, Co-Founder & Co-CEO of Solflare, anticipates that 2026 will be characterized by discussions around prediction markets, stablecoins, and the implications of AI.
“I foresee prediction markets becoming a significant focus because they’ve developed mechanisms to enable widespread participation in an area often tightly regulated,” Dragoslavic affirmed. “While it’s uncertain how long this current momentum will last, I do expect it to be a focal point in the near future. As they gain traction, regulatory frameworks will likely follow, especially within the EU, though the precise form they take remains under discussion.”
The third significant trend is AI. “On the business side, it is increasingly becoming a credits and funding game—AI-driven user experiences are resource-intensive, necessitating either substantial funding or extreme capital efficiency, which may widen the gap between well-capitalized teams and their counterparts,” Dragoslavic added. “At the product level, plain-language input will become essential, as users will prefer expressing intent naturally over navigating complicated processes. If you’re not moving in that direction by 2026, a challenging 2027 lies ahead.”
Regulatory Focus and Government Priorities for 2026
Turning our attention to regulations, experts predict that stablecoins will emerge as a focal point for governments worldwide, both in developed and developing countries, amid increasing concerns surrounding quantum computing.
“The year 2025 saw stablecoins transitioning from niche assets to mainstream players,” remarked Mark Aruliah, Head of EMEA Policy & Regulatory Affairs at Elliptic. “While 2025 established momentum, 2026 is poised for rapid acceleration as stablecoins become integrated into the global financial landscape.”
Aruliah noted meaningful strides in regulatory progress across numerous jurisdictions. “Although approaches vary, a consistent trajectory is observable: stablecoins are being recognized as vital components of future financial infrastructure,” he affirmed. “From Japan’s regulators collaborating with leading banks on stablecoin initiatives to the EU’s MiCA regulations, it’s evident that stablecoins will play a central role in financial services in 2026.”
Boris Bohrer Bilowitzki, CEO of Concordium, conveyed to Kitco News that even though stablecoin transaction volumes crossed the $7 trillion mark in 2025, less than 1% represent actual transactions in the physical world. “This points to a primary bottleneck—users’ trust and security concerns,” he explained. “USDT and USDC will likely remain dominant, even as various nations plan their own stablecoin projects and new entrants emerge. The ecosystem will continue to evolve slowly, particularly regarding everyday transactions.”
“2026 is the year when hype is separated from tangible utility,” Bilowitzki predicted. “The stablecoins that thrive will be those built by genuine infrastructure developers who prioritize security, privacy-enhanced identity, and real usability for consumers in their daily economic activities.”
Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO of Mercuryo, remarked that while clear regulatory frameworks are being developed in the U.S. and Europe, emerging markets continue to lead in real-world application. “Stablecoins are currently used for diverse scenarios, including payroll, international remittances, gaming microtransactions, and B2B settlements,” he observed. “In 2026, we expect the sector to penetrate deeper globally, enhancing acceptance among merchants and further integration into digital wallet ecosystems.”
Rebecca Liao, Co-Founder & CEO of Saga, affirmed to Kitco News that stablecoins will emerge as the fastest-growing area in the crypto space throughout 2026. “This growth is driven not only because most users prefer stable assets linked to fiat but also because stablecoins may end up being the only sector with regulatory clarity for the foreseeable future,” she explained. “This legal structure will accelerate their adoption as the universal settlement mechanism in global commerce. As a result, the concept of crypto as a standalone category may diminish, as more projects with practical use cases, such as stablecoin-based payments, merge into sectors where their technology is effectively utilized, establishing them as default currencies for machine-to-machine and consumer transactions.”
Adrian Wall, Managing Director of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance, shared the view that stablecoins will transition beyond being mere crypto offerings and evolve into essential infrastructure in 2026.
“The next phase is no longer about ‘crypto adoption’—it’s about true integration,” Wall emphasized. “The distinctions between stablecoins and the larger financial ecosystem will become less pronounced, executed in a responsible, transparent, and innovative manner that fortifies U.S. financial leadership.”
Stephan Dalal, Chief Legal Officer at Open World, conveyed to Kitco News that stablecoins could facilitate 10-15% or more of cross-border transactions by integrating into major digital wallets and enhancing merchant operations worldwide. “While alternatives will arise, none will seriously challenge USD predominance; Tether and Circle will broaden their regulated offerings, thereby reinforcing U.S. financial power, even amid increasing geopolitical tensions associated with a centralized dollar.”
Maghnus Mareneck, Co-CEO of Cosmos Labs, noted that clearer legal frameworks will catalyze growth in the stablecoin sector.
“Legislation passed in the US, UK, Singapore, and Japan will provide traditional financial institutions the confidence to develop their own compliant stablecoins and incorporate them into their existing platforms,” he said. “We can anticipate an increase in the issuance of stablecoins by various sectors, from tech companies to telecom enterprises, all launching digital tokens backed by fiat or real assets and under regulatory watch.”
“Ironically, regulation will stimulate growth in this arena, rather than stifling it,” Mareneck added. “Competition amongst regulatory frameworks will also heat up, seeing the EU’s MiCA guidelines and the U.S. GENIUS Act vie to establish a universally accepted standard.”
Lindsey Argalas, CEO of Taxbit, stated that regulatory clarity is a crucial element for the next phase of digital asset advancement. “The enactment of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. isn’t merely a domestic milestone; it’s igniting global interest in stablecoins as markets recognize the magnitude of what’s on the horizon,” she noted. “In the coming year, I expect to see substantial velocity in adoption as we transition from trial phases to scaled implementation. The companies that prioritize compliance, clarity, and operational readiness will lead the charge globally.”
Hong Fang, President of OKX, forecasts that stablecoins will manifest in contexts not normally associated with cryptocurrency—business transactions, Treasury operations, B2B settlements, payroll processing, and everyday financial dealings by the end of 2026. “The focus no longer lies in the market’s size but how seamlessly stablecoins integrate into the flow of money—instantaneously, transparently, and continuously,” she stated. “As tokenization and blockchain settlement evolve, stablecoins will serve as the vital link between traditional finance and digital asset infrastructure.”
Fang added that regulation is a significant driver in this evolution. “As more regions establish clearer norms, institutions can build products, manage risks, and provide digital asset pathways through trusted, compliant channels,” she affirmed. “This will transform stablecoins from niche applications into integral components of regulated global financial systems.”
Daniel Ahmed, COO and Co-founder of Fasset, emphasized that by the end of 2026, stablecoins will serve as a cornerstone for the Middle East’s emerging landscape of digital finance.
“The region’s expanding digital asset ecosystem, bolstered by an influx of global hedge funds, asset managers, and fintech startups, matches the speed at which regulators are adopting clear and coordinated measures,” he explained. “From VARA’s regulations to GCC-wide pilot initiatives, the regulatory momentum is guiding digital finance towards secure, bank-integrated solutions, thereby laying the groundwork for the compliant adoption of digital assets on a large scale.” Ahmed noted that stablecoins must be designed with an emphasis on transparency, oversight, and Shariah compliance, given that Islamic finance plays a pivotal role in the region’s financial architecture.
Increasingly, the escalating threat from quantum computing will be a priority on government agendas.
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, indicated that post-quantum cryptography and cybersecurity measures will be crucial areas of focus for governments and institutions in the upcoming year.
“One of 2026’s major narratives will involve the EU transitioning its digital infrastructure to mitigate risks from quantum computing,” he stated. “The European Commission and member nations have recently released a unified roadmap that outlines a timeline for these transitions, expecting all member states to initiate national post-quantum strategies and initial migration efforts by 2026. Additionally, critical infrastructures and high-risk sectors must implement quantum-resistant cryptography by 2030, completing the transition for all upgradable systems by 2035.”
Bob Blessing-Hartley, CTO at Shielded Technologies, expressed caution, suggesting that while quantum computing remains a potential threat, it is still some years away, with some of the concerns being overstated.
“While I can’t foretell the future, it’s highly improbable we’ll experience a ‘Y2Q’ event in 2026,” he remarked. “Most credible assessments suggest that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is at least a decade away, if not two, with earlier timelines being overly optimistic.”
“The primary misunderstanding is that quantum systems would disrupt privacy; in reality, the cryptography enabling advanced zero-knowledge proofs is already quantum-safe owing to its reliance on information-theoretic principles that no quantum device can reverse-engineer,” Blessing-Hartley noted. “The authentic risk lies in economic integrity; the potential for quantum-enabled forgery, not decryption, could undermine global confidence. Many existing systems, like certain rollups and Layer 2 solutions, depend on methods susceptible to Shor’s algorithm, allowing malicious actors to create counterfeit assets indistinguishable from legitimate ones.”
Nik Bougalis, CTO at Algorand Foundation, shared a similar outlook, indicating that quantum computers capable of breaching elliptic curve cryptography remain a distant concern.
“The process of constructing a quantum computer with the requisite logical qubits for modern cryptographic breach poses numerous fundamental hurdles; issues like quantum decoherence and error correction are significant scaling challenges,” he remarked. “The physical and engineering realities suggest we’re at least a decade away—maybe even two. Ask again in 2035!”
However, Bougalis acknowledged that the threat posed by quantum computing to blockchain technology is real. “Cryptographically relevant quantum computers do not have to exist yet for us to begin preparations; by the time they emerge, it may be too late,” he advised. Upgrading the ecosystem extends beyond protocol-level enhancements; it necessitates improvements across the entire landscape. “Every aspect must adapt—wallets, exchanges, custody services, developer toolkits, and hardware—all of it requires time.”
“Ultimately, the 2026 dividing line will not be about chains that can withstand quantum attacks vs. those that cannot,” he noted. “It will distinguish projects with concrete post-quantum roadmaps and functional implementations from those still grappling with this as a merely theoretical issue. Institutions assessing blockchain infrastructure for long-term deployment will increasingly require demonstrable quantum readiness, not just assurances.”
Potential Black Swan Events and Unexpected Developments
While the narrative for 2026 has shifted from the rapid gains typical of a bull market to a more sustained, value-driven approach, the crypto landscape is likely to experience its share of surprising and destabilizing events.
Carvalho highlighted the practice known as Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) as a growing cybersecurity threat that is already gaining prominence in 2026. “Malicious entities are increasingly gathering and encrypting sensitive data—ranging from financial transactions to personal identifiers—intending to decrypt this information once quantum computing becomes viable,” he warned. “This risk is particularly pronounced in data-intensive sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and healthcare, all of which frequently transmit and archive large swaths of encrypted data.”
“Even if this data is currently secure, once quantum computers reach sufficient processing capability, the cryptographic measures we rely on today could fail, rendering decades of stored information vulnerable to exploitation,” Carvalho cautioned. “In this landscape, the importance of building secure, resilient, and post-quantum solutions across key sectors has never been more critical.”
There is also the potential for an unexpected shift in the balance of power, with smaller firms possibly outpacing larger financial institutions.
“The surprise of 2026 could come from regional banks quickly adopting digital assets, gaining an edge over larger, established institutions,” Gerhart posited. “Stablecoins and blockchain banking aren’t exclusive to global banks, particularly since these technologies can help smaller financial entities compete more effectively concerning speed, cost, and reach.”
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