Coinbase’s Quantum Advisory Council has released a report evaluating the potential future risks to Bitcoin. Time is of the essence.
Traditional P2PK addresses, which utilize direct signatures without hashes, expose approximately 1.7 million BTC▼$76,605.00 to vulnerabilities, including coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. When considering the reuse of other address types, the overall number of at-risk Bitcoin could escalate to 7 million.
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The council is calling on the community to begin technical preparations for a transition to quantum-resistant systems without delay. Avoid waiting for a consensus on the status of “abandoned” assets.
Contents
Three Strategies to Secure Your Bitcoin
The council identified three distinct strategies for assets that remain on non-quantum-safe addresses by the deadline.
Strategy 1: Implement a burn or freeze after a designated time. Proponents argue that once cryptography is compromised, the owner loses legitimate proof of ownership. Allowing these vulnerable assets to circulate increases the risk of market manipulation.
Strategy 2: Maintain the status quo—allow users to decide. Mandating a burn would infringe on ownership rights and contradict Bitcoin’s fundamental principles.
Strategy 3: Introduce intermediate measures. This could involve capping the number of coins transferable from old addresses in a block, utilizing ZK-proofs to verify ownership without disclosing private keys, or establishing pre-signed secure transfer agreements.
The council emphasized that these suggestions are not mutually exclusive and may be implemented collectively.
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The Urgency of Immediate Preparation Over Waiting Until 2030
The commonly referenced timeline for the emergence of a “cryptographically relevant quantum computer” is set for 2030. However, Coinbase’s council argues that the community should start making preparations now, without relying on a specific threat timeline. The technical efforts involved in integrating post-quantum signatures into blockchains must proceed independently of decisions regarding abandoned assets.
Bitcoin Core developers have launched BIP-361, aiming to phase out outdated signatures and prohibit transactions to vulnerable addresses.
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Expert Opinions on the Quantum Risk
Venture capitalist Tim Draper suggests that concerns about quantum threats to Bitcoin are exaggerated. He argues that traditional financial institutions, operating on outdated systems, are more susceptible to breaches. Even if an attack was launched on the Bitcoin network, full node operators could revert to the last secure block, a luxury banks do not possess.
Conversely, BIP-361 co-author Jameson Lopp believes otherwise. He asserts that banks could adapt to combat quantum threats “much faster” than Bitcoin, as any changes in a decentralized network require widespread agreement. He estimates that the complete transition for Bitcoin may take between five to ten years.
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