Picture your front door lock. Now, envision a locksmith who can simply look at that lock and deduce the precise shape of your key. There’s no need to pick, force, or damage anything. The locksmith merely observes the security fixture displayed to the world daily, then effortlessly accesses your space.
This scenario is similar to what a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could do to Bitcoin (BTC +6.41%) and Ethereum (ETH +7.26%). Each time you make a purchase from a crypto wallet, you reveal a public key. At present, using that public key to calculate the corresponding private key would take a conventional computer longer than the age of the universe.
A sufficiently powerful quantum system employing Shor’s algorithm could accomplish this task in just a few hours. In March, Google Quantum AI, a part of Alphabet, indicated that around 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits—implemented by connecting numerous error-prone physical qubits—are needed for this process. When utilizing superconducting technology, this translates to under 500,000 physical qubits and a runtime of 18 to 23 minutes. Researchers from the Ethereum Foundation and Stanford contributed to this study.
However, the timeline for this advancement remains uncertain. Google’s Willow chip has 105 qubits, and currently available machines typically have about 2,000 to 2,500 qubits. A related paper by Oratomic, with contributions from Caltech’s John Preskill, claims that neutral-atom technology could achieve similar results with roughly 26,000 qubits. Some experts predict this critical moment could arrive before 2030, while others estimate a timeline extending to 2040. Cryptocurrency developers must take the earlier prediction seriously, as a decentralized network cannot be updated overnight.
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Expensive Solutions Are Available
On the bright side, scientists have discovered encryption methods that can withstand quantum attacks. In fact, these are not even novel ideas.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology completed the standardization of initial post-quantum algorithms in 2024, featuring the lattice-based ML-DSA and the hash-based SLH-DSA. The names may as well have been created by a sci-fi enthusiast. Currently, Microsoft and IBM incorporate post-quantum security into their cloud and cybersecurity offerings.
So, why hasn’t there been any transition to these new protocols? The answer is simple: they are bulky. Post-quantum signatures are larger and slower compared to the streamlined elliptic curve signatures used in current cryptocurrencies. On a blockchain, each computing node retains every signature indefinitely. Implementing these changes is akin to replacing every door in a skyscraper with heavy-duty vault doors. While this certainly enhances security, it poses problems in terms of cost, weight, and speed of access. Additionally, the growing demand for storage solutions, particularly due to advances in artificial intelligence, has resulted in skyrocketing prices.
Furthermore, there isn’t just one door to secure. The hashing mechanism that connects data blocks holds up fairly well against anticipated quantum threats, but transaction signatures and firmware for hardware wallets do not. Each layer must receive its own upgrade.
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Not Yet Complete, But Progress is Underway
As of September 2026, none of the top 20 cryptocurrencies have achieved full quantum safety. Referring to this as a race might be overly optimistic; it resembles a group of individuals preparing to start, while debating the best path to take.
Bitcoin is making strides with BIP 360, which introduces a new address type called P2MR. Think of this as pre-wiring your home for a future appliance that hasn’t arrived yet. It allows users to eventually transition to quantum-resistant signatures without necessary hard forks. Additionally, Blockstream researchers have confirmed that Taproot, established in November 2021, is quantum-safe for specific functions.
Ethereum, on the other hand, has adopted a more proactive strategy, which aligns with its goals. The Ethereum Foundation has established a dedicated Post-Quantum Security team. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s Lean Ethereum initiative outlines a multiyear plan for replacing validator signatures with hash-based alternatives, along with quantum-resistant STARK proofs. Simply put, Ethereum’s vulnerabilities are being systematically upgraded.
However, some of the most intriguing advancements are emerging beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Algorand has successfully executed real transactions using the quantum-resistant Falcon-1024 algorithm, marking it as the first significant smart contract platform where next-gen security keys function effectively. Meanwhile, the privacy-centric Zcash is investing in a venture aimed at integrating quantum-proof private transactions directly into hardware security chips. According to founder Josh Swihart, Zcash itself is expected to attain quantum-proof status by 2027.
In addition, wallet manufacturers are also adapting. The Trezor Safe 7 boasts a dual-chip setup prepared for quantum-readiness, allowing it to deploy post-quantum firmware as soon as the leading chains implement it. Meanwhile, the Ledger team is revamping its wallets’ chips to accommodate larger keys.
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Next Steps
As Douglas Adams famously advised, there’s no need to panic (but it’s always wise to have a towel handy).
This is a long-term situation involving many discussions and decisions. The key point to observe is not merely whether quantum-resistant software is developed, but also how swiftly it enters actual use.
Bitcoin cannot compel its holders to update, resulting in millions of coins remaining in legacy addresses, their public keys exposed and vulnerable to a potential quantum locksmith. On the other hand, major cryptocurrencies are gearing up for a future where quantum attacks are a reality. The costly algorithms necessary for stronger security will eventually become indispensable.