Nevertheless, the researchers warn against becoming too relaxed about the situation.
“We’re very confident that a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer will eventually be developed,” the document asserts, noting that while the timeline remains unpredictable, it is “certainly on the horizon.”
This unpredictability presents a significant challenge, with projections ranging from “a few years to over a decade” and no dependable method to forecast technological breakthroughs.
This sense of urgency is echoed in recommendations from the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which advises a transition to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035, a timeline that the report suggests may even be overly optimistic.
“Procrastinating until it becomes essential is ill-advised,” states the Coinbase paper, highlighting that transitions involving blockchains, wallets, and exchanges could require years to implement securely.
Some digital assets might be at greater risk than others. For instance, Bitcoin wallets that have already disclosed their public keys could be more vulnerable, whereas those that remain secured by hash functions might enjoy better short-term safety.
On a positive note, quantum-resistant cryptography (PQC) is already in existence and undergoing standardization by NIST.
However, the downside is that transitioning to this new standard isn’t straightforward.
Post-quantum digital signatures may be significantly larger—ranging from tens to hundreds of times the size of current signatures—potentially leading to steep increases in blockchain data expenses and reduced transaction speeds. According to one estimate in the report, substituting today’s signatures with quantum-proof ones could lead to block sizes being increased by as much as 38 times.