On the morning of the 30th, the cryptocurrency market displayed a lack of clear momentum. Bitcoin mainly fluctuated around the $83,000 mark, unable to generate a distinct trend from the prior day. Ethereum and XRP also experienced slight declines, with a general mood of hesitation permeating the market.
By 9:20 a.m. on Japanese exchanges, Bitcoin was priced at about ¥13.1 million per BTC (a 0.1% increase over the last 24 hours), Ethereum was around ¥420,000 per ETH (down 0.6%), and XRP was approximately ¥230 per XRP (down 0.8%).
The previous day, Bitcoin traded between $83,000 and $84,000. It briefly dipped below $83,000 at midday but managed to bounce back to $84,000 by evening. Nonetheless, it retreated again into the early morning hours, failing to hold that level.
On the 28th, Bitcoin traded within the $84,000 range during the day but slipped below that threshold toward midday, landing in the mid-$82,000 range by evening. Although some of the losses were recuperated, the recovery was limited around $84,000.
This significant resistance stems from short-term profit-taking pressure. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics company based in South Korea, observed that after Bitcoin’s rally to $87,251 last week—its highest point in eight months—the average unrealized profit margin for holders with short-term investments (holding periods of one to three months) reached about 33%, the highest level observed since December 2024.
This rise in unrealized profits led to selling activity, resulting in profit-taking amounting to 25,700 BTC in one day last week—the highest daily total since the start of 2026. The firm suggested the possibility of entering a short-term correction phase, yet remains optimistic about the long-term bull market.
CryptoQuant outlined three levels of support to watch. The first is the 365-day moving average around $80,000; the second, the 200-day moving average near $71,000; and the third, the on-chain realized price approximating $67,000.
| Support Level | Approximate Price |
|---|---|
| 365-day moving average | $80,000 |
| 200-day moving average | $71,000 |
| On-chain realized price | $67,000 |
The firm posits that whether these levels hold will be pivotal in determining if the current correction is merely a standard consolidation phase within the bull market or if it signifies the end of the upward trend.
Meanwhile, institutional investments continue to flow in. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly saw around $2.4 billion (approximately ¥380 billion) in net inflows during the week of the 21st to the 25th. Even with the price correction, demand through ETFs remains strong, seen as a support mechanism for Bitcoin’s downside.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading above key moving averages on the daily chart. The 200-day moving average is currently around $71,000, with the 100-day moving average near $70,000, both showing upward trends. Following the sharp increase from the $60,000 range in August, the $75,000 to $80,000 zone has emerged as a crucial support band, with $67,000 acting as a significant structural support level.
On the upside, the $88,000 to $90,000 range marks the first notable resistance area, with additional supply near $95,000. The $80,000 to $82,000 demand zone is currently under observation as the nearest downside support. A strong breach of $86,000 would pave the way to $90,000, while a fall below $80,000 could lead to corrections toward the $75,000 level.
The adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) on-chain indicator has risen above 1.0, signaling that market participants are starting to reap profits again. However, this level hasn’t yet reached previous highs observed during robust rally phases, indicating that while improvements are underway, a significant trend expansion hasn’t been confirmed.
In the broader economic context, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 in October last year, followed by a massive liquidation event that wiped out over $19 billion (approximately ¥3 trillion) in positions, resulting in a sharp downturn. Since the dawn of this year, a continuous decline ensued after the Federal Reserve indicated it would maintain steady interest rates, shifting investor focus toward AI-related stocks.
However, after U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion (approximately ¥6,296.8 trillion) for the first time in July, the “debasement trade”—buying assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against currency depreciation—has gained renewed interest. Historically, Bitcoin and gold have performed well during periods of U.S. dollar weakness.
The market is presently in a phase of seeking direction amid the tension of short-term profit-taking and sustained institutional buying. The ability of Bitcoin to hold the psychological $80,000 mark appears crucial in assessing future price movements.