Currently, XRP hovers just above the $1 mark at $1.01. To analyze potential future movements, we provided ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini with the latest pricing and ETF flow information, then inquired about the likelihood of the $1 support level breaking and where XRP might decline to.
Reasons for Predicting XRP Will Drop Below $1
Both ChatGPT and Gemini assess the chances of XRP closing below $1 by the end of September at 75%, while Claude estimates it at 65%.
ChatGPT emphasized that the $1 support level is heavily congested, as many traders place their stop-loss orders around round numbers. If XRP falls below $1, these stop-losses engage automatically, leading to a sharper price decline before buyers return to the market. Additionally, there’s been a noted 23.2% decrease in XRP Ledger activity, with daily active addresses dropping from 19,927 to 15,302 in the first half of the year, even as total activated accounts exceeded 8 million.
Gemini, on the other hand, focused on the XRP price charts. It indicated that XRP is currently below the 50-day EMA at $1.09, the 100-day at $1.17, and the 200-day at $1.36, signifying that sellers retain control across all timeframes. The daily RSI stands at 36, nearing the 30 mark, which indicates oversold conditions, suggesting that XRP is approaching a level where selling pressure may ease.
Claude reiterated that the $1 level had already been breached intraday on August 11, observed downtrends across all trend averages, and noted a halt in institutional investments. Nonetheless, it maintained a probability of 65% for XRP dropping below $1 because of continued purchases by larger investors at this price point.
All three AI models also highlighted the decline in XRP ETF inflows. Weekly inflows plummeted to $1.01 million for the week ending August 8, a 93% decrease, with net assets now at $964 million compared to the $666 million gathered during their launch month. ETF purchases typically absorb selling pressures, and with this inflow slowing considerably, XRP faces increased vulnerability.
Predicted XRP Bottom Ranges from $0.55 to $0.80
None of the models foresee the XRP price stopping its decline somewhere near $1. Instead, they predict a bottom between $0.55 and $0.80, reflecting a 21% to 46% decrease from the current $1.01 price point.
ChatGPT suggested an XRP bottom of $0.78, forecasting that buying interest could emerge between $0.80 and $0.85, but it positioned the call slightly lower as prices often overshoot when breaking through round numbers.
Claude indicated $0.80 as a potential bottom, slightly above ChatGPT’s prediction. It reasoned that XRP has not traded below $1 for 635 days, resulting in minimal trading activity to form solid support levels as it declines. Claude mentioned $0.62 as a risk threshold, contingent on the CLARITY Act failing in September and if Bitcoin drops simultaneously, although current whale activity and ETF holdings of approximately $964 million provide some backing.
Gemini set a lower estimate of $0.55, around 30 cents below the other two predictions. It contended that XRP has maintained a consistent trading range, and a drop below $1 would push it outside that range, with historical buy support typically appearing around $0.50 to $0.60.
Implications of Breaking Below $1
XRP spent 1,139 days below $1 after falling under that threshold in February 2018, and another 1,085 days following a drop in November 2021, close to three years each time. Both declines began similarly—with XRP falling slightly below a dollar before continuing to drop further.
However, these prior periods lacked the institutional support currently provided by ETFs. Presently, those funds are holding $933 million in XRP, only selling when investors withdraw their shares, meaning price drops do not necessitate their sale.
The $933 million held by ETFs comprises about 1.5% of XRP’s overall market capitalization of $63 billion, while XRP typically trades volumes exceeding this amount daily. Thus, while the funds may buffer against price declines, they are not a guarantee against them.
Should the support level give way, XRP may linger below $1 for a few months, but it is unlikely to experience the multi-year delays of previous cycles. However, the upcoming Senate vote on the CLARITY Act scheduled for September is crucial. Should it fail, XRP may lack further catalysts for 2026, increasing the possibility of a prolonged downturn.
Potential Extent of XRP’s Decline
If the $1 support fails, the XRP price could reach a low between $0.78 and $0.80, as indicated by the three AI predictions. This range suggests a potential 21% drop from $1.01 and aligns with historical trading levels before the November 2024 upswing, suggesting that buyers have entered at these prices in the past.
Ultimately, all eyes are on the critical Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The market has been anticipating this decision, and its approval could reinvigorate the institutional investment that has been absent for much of the year.