Will Bitcoin Soar to $1 Million by 2030? Arthur Hayes Warns on AI Credit Risks

Arthur Hayes has reaffirmed his prediction that Bitcoin may hit $1 million by 2030, suggesting that an increase could occur in late 2027 or early 2028 due to pressures stemming from AI infrastructure backed by debt.

As reported by financial news account Walter Bloomberg on X, the Maelstrom chief investment officer forecasts that Bitcoin’s most substantial rise will occur in late 2027 or early 2028. Hayes’s outlook for a $1 million Bitcoin hinges on the belief that a downturn in AI investments may prompt governments and central banks to infuse cash into the economy.

In the context described, Hayes foresees financial strain if data-center profits can’t cover the substantial investments in construction and technology. His expected Bitcoin surge relies on a responsive action from policymakers to address borrower and financial institution losses by enhancing liquidity.

Bitcoin’s $1 million forecast tied to AI credit decline

In a report dated August 5, crypto.news detailed Hayes’s theory about an AI credit crisis, framing much of the infrastructure expenditure as debt-driven property development. His focus was on land, buildings, utility connections, cooling mechanisms, and processors that could depreciate as newer, more efficient options become available.

Drawing parallels with past market collapses, Hayes depicted the current boom as:

“a credit situation like 2008 rather than an earnings issue akin to 2000.”

He elaborated that the risks extend beyond plummeting tech stocks. Banks, insurers, private lenders, and infrastructure financiers could incur losses if ventures fail to generate sufficient revenue for interest, leases, and other financial commitments.

Hayes emphasized that successful technology firms might continue thriving even if less robust projects and their backers falter. Thus, his prediction is more about the debt underpinning the expansion rather than necessitating every significant AI company to experience revenue drops.

The discrepancy between the actual lifespan of hardware and the extended repayment terms further elucidates his emphasis on the years 2027 and 2028. Hayes anticipates that equipment will become outdated even as borrowers are still accountable for repayments based on previous optimistic revenue forecasts.

Hayes’s spending forecast highlights late 2027 and 2028

In the August analysis, Hayes forecasted that growth in announced AI capital expenditures would start to wane in the latter half of 2027, becoming more evident in 2028. He also predicted a shift in investor preference toward companies that curtailed construction initiatives.

While Hayes identified a potential period of difficulty, he admitted he could not pinpoint which borrower might trigger a crisis or determine Bitcoin’s precise minimum value. His August outlook suggested Bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $70,000, with potential declines toward $50,000 before eventually advancing to $1 million.

By September 22, reports on his AI debt liquidity hypothesis painted a more specific concern: diminished demand for AI training and services could jeopardize the revenue projections for data centers, chip acquisitions, and related loans.

In his “Safety First” essay, Hayes stated that attempts to lower computing costs could impact infrastructure investments financed on expectations of increased spending. Debt responsibilities would persist, he noted, even if customers chose to purchase less computing capacity than lenders and developers had envisaged.

Apollo estimates AI financing will overflow into private debt

Research from Apollo quantifies the financing needed for this expansion. In a note dated August 14, chief economist Torsten Slok estimated that the AI landscape could generate over $2 trillion of investment-grade debt.

Apollo suggested that public investment-grade markets might accommodate less than $1 trillion by 2030 due to issuer concentration and credit rating constraints. The firm forecasted that more than $1 trillion of financing could shift to private placements, infrastructure loans, equipment financing, and project-specific arrangements.

Using data up to July, Apollo mentioned that AI-related borrowing accounted for nearly 40% of the supply of long-duration investment-grade corporate bonds. Their research proposed private financing as a viable solution to meet demand, with collateral and contractual protections available in certain transactions.

Regarding potential U.S. policy responses, Hayes outlined two strategies in “Safety First.” The government could either purchase computing capacity to bolster the industry, qualifying as a “compute buyer of last resort,” or provide support to insurers facing losses on AI-related debt.

In either scenario, Hayes expects this response to enhance money supply and consequently support Bitcoin prices. The report on September 22 noted that U.S. authorities had yet to announce any measures in reaction to an AI debt situation.

U.S. insurance regulators are tightening private credit reporting

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has recognized liquidity, pricing, and transparency issues in private credit, forming a direct U.S. link to the lending risks highlighted by Hayes.

As per its guidance, concerns regarding valuations, lending standards, and sector exposure have led to withdrawal requests at some retail private credit funds. Some funds have implemented withdrawal limits, while software borrowers impacted by AI disruptions have come under closer examination.

The association clarified that these trends do not inherently signify decay across private credit markets or insurers’ portfolios. State regulators and NAIC staff are vigilantly monitoring credit quality, valuation practices, and insurer investments.

In amendments adopted in 2025, the NAIC mandates private rating rationale reports within 90 days following an annual update or rating alteration. The association stipulates that the reports must contain substantial analysis, according to its explanation of the requirements.

For annual financial disclosures, the NAIC’s Statutory Accounting Principles Working Group has implemented changes effective at the end of 2026 to enhance the reporting of insurers’ private credit assets.