• According to data released by Glassnode on Saturday, Bitcoin investors who entered the market during last year’s price increase are currently liquidating their holdings at a higher daily rate than at any previous time this year.

  • Investors who purchased Bitcoin between one to two years ago have an average cost basis near $97,000, while those who bought it six to twelve months ago stand at around $89,000, putting both groups at a financial loss.

  • Investors who acquired Bitcoin during its price decline have chosen not to sell, leading to a concentration of coins in that segment rather than a more diversified holder base.

As Bitcoin faced challenges breaking through the $85,000 level on Saturday, data from Glassnode indicated that those who bought into the cryptocurrency during last year’s surge were selling off more coins daily than any other point in 2023.

On the social media platform X, Glassnode categorized Bitcoin holders based on their purchase timing and calculated each group’s average investment cost. This metric, known as cost basis, highlights the price needed for a group of buyers to break even, with two groups currently sitting below that threshold.

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Source: @glassnode/x

Glassnode reported that buyers from one to two years prior have an average cost basis around $97,000, while the average for six to twelve months ago is about $89,000. Both segments currently face losses.

At the time of this report, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $84,673. For the six-to-twelve-month group to break even, they need a price increase of approximately 5%, while the one-to-two-year group would require nearly a 15% rise.

On Stocktwits, the overall sentiment towards BTC shifted from ‘neutral’ to ‘bearish’, with the volume of discussions switching from ‘low’ to ‘normal’ in the past twenty-four hours.

Selling Pressure from 2025 Buyers as Existing Holders Remain Stable

Both aforementioned groups are currently incurring losses. Since Bitcoin’s current value is lower than their purchase prices, selling now would mean realizing those losses. Many holders in this situation often wait for the price to rebound to their purchase levels before selling, aiming to cut their losses. Each cost basis effectively creates a price point where selling frequently increases.

Glassnode’s analysis highlighted two instances when Bitcoin neared these thresholds and subsequently decreased. These points were marked as “Rejected” on their chart, but the firm did not elaborate further in their post. The analysis tracked the selling activity as it quantified the amount of Bitcoin transferred between entities daily, averaged over a week. According to Glassnode, the buyers from the 2025 rally are now offloading the most Bitcoin per day than at any previous moment this year.

Despite the selling trend, not every buyer is offloading their assets. Glassnode observed that holders who purchased during the market decline are retaining their coins, leading to a tighter supply base. Selling is primarily concentrated in one specific group rather than dispersed among all holders.

The Weekly Closure as a Critical Indicator

Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted a crucial near-term level, stating that “Bitcoin reached the $87,000 mark” before pulling back on all gains. He suggested that a robust rally would necessitate a weekly closure above $87,500.

Screenshot 2026-10-03 at 7.09.51 AM.png

Source: @TedPillows/x

A weekly closure refers to the final trading price of the week instead of just the day’s highest. If this closure does not occur, Pillows cautioned that there may be a notable risk of a price correction below $80,000, which is lower than both cost-basis estimates mentioned by Glassnode.

An Improving Relative Performance

Previously, Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin’s strength relative to the S&P 500 (SPX) has improved, with its win rate exceeding 50% last week. The win rate reflects the proportion of trading sessions where Bitcoin outperformed this stock index.

Screenshot 2026-10-03 at 9.27.02 AM.png

Source: @glassnode/x

Glassnode observed that Bitcoin only outperformed the index on about 20% of the trading days in June, the lowest performance seen in six years. This revival occurred while stock prices remained stagnant, which implies a specific demand for Bitcoin itself.

Screenshot 2026-10-03 at 9.27.36 AM.png

Source: @willywoo/x

Analyst Willy Woo made a long-term argument, stating that Bitcoin has historically outperformed stocks over four-year holding periods, even for those who bought at market peaks. He noted Bitcoin’s four-year annualized growth rate stands at 42% compared to just 19% for the S&P 500.

Read more: Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell identifies Treasury shifts as a key driver for Bitcoin as DeFi tokens gain ground.

For updates and corrections, please email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Anushka Basu has no financial interests in the stocks mentioned in this report. The content produced by StockTwits’ news team is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. For additional information, please refer to our editorial policy. This information originally appeared on StockTwits.

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