The attached weekly chart reveals that $BTC is hovering around $84,000, surpassing the 50-week moving average of approximately $77,000. This follows a dip to nearly $58,000 and a robust green weekly candle that pushed prices back above the average. This moving average represents the mean of the last 50 weekly closing prices, equivalent to about a year of trading activity.
According to earlier reports from CryptoPotato, Bitcoin reached a peak close to $87,000 on October 2, fell to around $80,000 last Thursday, and has stabilized around $83,000 following a rebound on Friday. However, the latest data from CoinGecko indicates a rise past $84,000, reflecting a 1% increase in the last 24 hours and a 9% uptick over the month. In contrast, it’s down 2% over the past week and 24% compared to a year ago.
A note from CryptoRus on X highlighted that a previous brief spike above $84,000 resulted in the liquidation of nearly $83 million in short positions—these bets on declining prices must be closed when the market shifts upward. This situation can accelerate movement but cannot solely maintain the trend, according to the note, which describes the market as being at “a choice point rather than a confirmed breakout.”
Unfortunately, fund flows have not been supportive. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $681 million, the highest amount since late June, which included $487 million on Wednesday as prices declined.
Confirmation Still Relies on Demand
At the same time, XWIN Japan observes a favorable shift towards a market bottom, though it emphasizes that confirmation relies on sustained inflows into ETFs, increased U.S. spot purchasing, and a continued demand recovery.
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On-chain analytics show that exchange reserves of $BTC are still low, with whale holdings at about 3 million $BTC. The Apparent Demand metric has improved from deeply negative levels but is still below zero.
The firm analyzed that markets are currently pricing in approximately an 18% likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, especially with the midterm elections approaching on November 3. XWIN states, “A correction can lay the groundwork for the next upswing.”
CryptoRus is looking for consistent four-hour closes above $84,000 on increasing volume and notes that another rejection at this level would imply that positioning played a larger role than actual conviction. Furthermore, it indicated that upcoming releases such as inflation data (CPI and PPI), retail sales figures, and jobless claims could quickly alter market liquidity.