Last year marked a significant deviation from the norm: although Bitcoin reached an unprecedented price of $126,080, it soon entered a downturn after October 10, following a historic liquidation event that severely impacted its value.
The entire market faced considerable turmoil after U.S. President Donald Trump issued tariff warnings. This situation led to the elimination of many crypto long positions, resulting in over $19 billion in liquidations across digital assets.
As a result, Bitcoin remained in a bearish trend for the majority of 2026.
On a brighter note, recent weeks have seen Bitcoin achieve its strongest quarterly performance in years, with September showing surprising resilience—typically a challenging month for the cryptocurrency. Analysts now suggest that despite a rocky beginning to “Uptober,” there might already be indicators of a recovery this month.
In a report from the data analytics firm CryptoQuant, the Japanese asset management company XWIN hinted at potential upward momentum.
“Currently, there are emerging signs suggesting a possible bottom,” XWIN stated in their analysis. “As of October 12, markets estimated approximately an 18% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, while Brent crude prices had dropped from nearly $110 to about $103.”
They further noted: “While ‘Uptober’ might not guarantee continuous increases, corrections can pave the way for future gains.”
In the short term, elevated oil prices have negatively influenced Bitcoin’s value, as investors anticipate interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.
Interestingly, even with last month’s interest rate increase by the U.S. central bank, Bitcoin’s price remained steady and even climbed in response to the announcement.
Other experts now contend that Bitcoin has transitioned out of a bear market, having surpassed its 365-day moving average—a trend that has historically indicated the beginning of bullish cycles.
This article, “Bitcoin Extends Slide — Can ‘Uptober’ 2026 Outperform Last Year’s?” was originally published on Bitcoin Magazine by Mathew Di Salvo.