This week, Bitcoin saw a positive shift in momentum according to two key indicators, signaling the end of a nearly 10-month bearish period. PlanB, the architect behind the stock-to-flow model, expressed skepticism about the simplicity of this interpretation.
Currently, BTC is priced around $81,679, reflecting a 1.7% decline in the last 24 hours and remaining below the $83,094 mark indicated in PlanB’s analysis.
Do Bitcoin Bullish Indicators Signal a New Cycle?
In a recent post, PlanB shared insights from Block Horizon, which is monitoring the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of Bitcoin. This metric evaluates the relationship between market capitalization and the total cost basis of all mined coins.
Historically, positive MVRV ratios have coincided with bull markets, while negative readings have matched bearish trends. The oscillator turned green on October 13, marking a shift to +0.07, after a prolonged negative period that began in late 2025.
Interestingly, the bottom of the 2026 bear phase reached approximately -0.4, which is less severe than the -0.55 lows recorded in both 2018 and 2022.
Why a Positive Shift May Not Validate the Bottom
Analyst Quinten Francois noted another metric. Bitcoin’s weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has now moved above zero after 44 weeks of negative performance.
This same crossover occurred in both 2019 and 2023, producing drastically different results. The 2023 flip preceded a surge from around $25,000 to over $70,000 within a year.
Conversely, in 2019, BTC quickly rose to nearly $13,800, only to drop below $4,000 by March 2020. Additionally, last month, a distinct 50-week moving average signal reemerged after 45 weeks.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Finally Disrupted?
Eric Crown, a contributor to BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, suggests that the cyclical patterns based on time may no longer be reliable.
Now, there are two potential scenarios:
1. Bitcoin reached its bottom in July, making this movement ahead of expectations (thus broken)
2. Bitcoin could still bottom out after today, indicating it fell behind schedule (also broken)
In either case, the pattern is broken… finally.
Historically, previous lows have occurred about a year after each cycle peak, suggesting a potential bottom in autumn 2026. Benjamin Cowen had predicted an October cycle low but later acknowledged in September that his bearish outlook was incorrect.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dropped to $57,800 on July 1, which was approximately three months ahead of that predicted schedule.
Has the Market Already Factored in the Bull Case?
The CryptoQuant Analyst Consensus Index, compiled from feedback by 164 analysts, surged from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 by October 13, with the proportion of bullish analysts increasing from 37% to 84% during the same timeframe.
However, the price action has not aligned with this sentiment. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin peaked around $87,000 in late September, yet it currently trades about 6% lower.