Is XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) at its lowest point? Insights from Claude, an AI model by Anthropic, indicate there’s a 40% probability that the recent low of $1.25 on October 18, 2026, represents the bottom of the market cycle. Should this support fail, Claude warns that selling pressure may shift to the $1.12 level.
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Is XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) finally seeing a bottom? According to Claude, Anthropic’s AI, the low of $1.25 observed on October 18, 2026, has a 40% chance of being the cycle’s bottom. If this level is breached, selling might slow down around $1.12.
Currently, XRP is trading at $1.31 after experiencing a 12.1% decline this month, sitting approximately 64% lower than its peak of $3.65 reached in July 2025.
On a positive note, XRP has been establishing higher lows, with $1.28 marked during the week of October 19. This leads to the question: Has XRP truly found its base, or is there still a chance for sellers to push the price downward?
XRP’s $83 Billion Market Cap and Token Supply
The market capitalization of XRP currently stands at $83.2 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, surpassing Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), which has a market cap of $61.8 billion.
Investors often overlook the supply side of XRP. Approximately 63.13 billion XRP are currently circulating out of a total supply of 100 billion. This indicates that its fully diluted valuation, which considers every possible token, is roughly $131.8 billion.
Ripple retains a significant portion of the uncirculated supply in escrow and releases tokens incrementally. As the circulating supply increases, maintaining each price level will require more investment than in earlier cycles. Thus, sustaining a level of $1.25 in October 2026 will involve accounting for a larger supply compared to previous years.
In the past year, XRP has underperformed relative to its competitors, experiencing a drop of 44.9%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) declined by 25.2% and 37.8%, respectively.
ETF Inflows and Record Wallets Fail to Halt XRP’s Decline
Recently, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that include XRP saw inflows of roughly $708,500 on October 21 and $3.55 million on October 22, based on data from SoSoValue. By October 22, total net inflows reached $1.80 billion, with net assets valued at $1.49 billion.
Nonetheless, these inflows seem to have minimal effect. On September 25, these funds marked their highest monthly inflow of $22.6 million, which briefly lifted XRP to $1.63. However, by October 23, XRP had dipped from $1.50 on September 23 to $1.31, and the funds experienced a $2.47 million outflow on October 16. While these inflows could potentially slow down selling pressure, a trend reversal seems unlikely.
Additionally, the XRP Ledger has now reached a record number of 8.24 million non-empty wallets, per Santiment’s report. While this growth in wallet numbers may suggest a larger holder base, it coincides with a 28.8% decline this year, indicating that the increase in wallets hasn’t stopped the price from falling.
Moreover, central banks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are advancing a cross-border stablecoin initiative that involves Ripple along with Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA). However, the specifics of Ripple’s involvement and any direct application of XRP remain ambiguous, leading Claude to treat this information with caution, primarily viewing it through the lens of optimistic projections.
Claude AI’s Projection: Selling May Slow at $1.12
Claude emphasizes the importance of the $1.25 support level for XRP. If it closes beneath this threshold, the price could quickly decline to $1.15. Claude estimates that selling pressure may diminish between the $1.10 to $1.15 range, which is about 15% below the current price, with $1.00 being the next significant level of concern. The model also predicts a 20% likelihood of a drop below $1.00.
For December 31, 2026, Claude’s scenarios predict values ranging from $0.95 in a bearish case to $1.45 in a base case and $2.10 in an optimistic scenario.
Is XRP Truly Bottomed at $1.25, or Is Additional Selling Likely?
It appears that XRP may not have completely reached its bottom yet. Claude assesses the coin as approaching a bottom but considers this unconfirmed, estimating a 55% chance that it might trade under $1.25 before the year’s end, making a retest more probable than a straightforward hold.
A confirmed bottom would likely follow a specific recovery pattern: initially, XRP must regain its 20-day average of $1.37, then close above its 50-day average of $1.41, and ultimately achieve a weekly close above $1.45. A weekly close above $1.45 would strongly suggest that the bottom is in place. Conversely, a daily close below $1.25 could rekindle focus on the $1.12 level.
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