Brief Overview
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In previous midterm cycles, Bitcoin reached its lowest point between 13 and 71 days post-election, but in 2026, it fell to its low 125 days before the vote.
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The net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $105 billion, facilitating daily inflows from Wall Street that might have affected the timing of previous lows.
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For Bitcoin to confirm an early cycle low, it needs to maintain a price of $57,718; dropping below $60,000 prior to January 2027 would align with historical midterm trends.
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Historically, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has shown a pattern of reaching its lowest points shortly after U.S. midterm elections. In previous instances, Bitcoin’s bottom was identified between 13 and 71 days after election day. However, in this cycle, Bitcoin deviated from this norm, hitting a low of $57,718 on July 1, well before the November 3 midterms and 125 days ahead of the election.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $81,234, reflecting a 40% increase from its July low, despite a 2.8% decrease in October. Prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor shared on X (formerly Twitter) on October 13, “I believe we hit the bottom slightly below $60,000.” This brings forth the question: has the typical post-midterm rally commenced months in advance, or could we see another decline?
Bitcoin’s Midterm Bottom Has Occurred Consistently Over Three Cycles
This trend has persisted through three cycles since 2014. In the midterm election of 2014, held on November 4, Bitcoin reached its low 71 days later on January 14, 2015. Likewise, during the 2018 midterms on November 6, Bitcoin dropped to its lowest 39 days later on December 15.
In the 2022 midterms on November 8, Bitcoin dipped just 13 days later on November 21 amid a market still grappling with the fallout from the FTX incident.
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Though these observations suggest a trend, they represent a small dataset, and investors should avoid assuming this pattern will always hold. The cycles of Bitcoin halving and U.S. elections occur on four-year schedules, and any correlation may simply be coincidental.
Midterm Outcomes Often Release Capital Held in Wait
Midterm elections preserve the sitting president but also determine which party gains control over Congress, greatly influencing policies related to taxes, expenditures, and cryptocurrency regulations. Major investors often refrain from trading before elections due to unpredictability. Once the election results are tallied, uncertainty wanes, allowing previously sidelined funds to reinvest.
