Bitcoin Traders Face Significant Losses as Buying Interest Fades
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin traders have realized daily losses ranging from $657 million to $703 million over the last three days, resulting in a total exceeding $2 billion.
Despite these staggering losses, the weekly net profit and loss figures show a negative balance of $191 million, indicating that some investors managed to generate profits during this timeframe.
The situation worsened as Bitcoin’s price dropped below $80,000, nearing the levels observed during the market slump in early August.
Darkfost further noted that the 30-day moving average for Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta—reflecting aggressive buying versus selling—has turned negative on Binance and Coinbase.
At the close of August, this metric was at a positive $64.8 million for Binance and $64.3 million for Coinbase, marking robust demand as Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to nearly $85,000 in September.
By November 5, these figures had shifted to negative $28 million and $9.4 million, respectively.
Coinbase began to show declining trends in October, while Binance held a positive stance initially. Now, both exchanges are witnessing more selling pressure than buying activity, highlighting a growing weakness across major trading platforms.
This shift occurs as Bitcoin struggles to rebound from a market downturn that saw the S&P 500 drop by 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite by 5.52% last Thursday.
Concerns surrounding AI valuations and the implications of a Democratic majority in the upcoming midterm elections contributed to a sharp drop in tech stocks.
This downturn has erased much of Wednesday’s pre-election rally and has revealed Bitcoin’s sensitivity to overall market risk.
Yet, Bitcoin’s challenges are not solely tied to the stock market’s performance.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that weakening Bitcoin demand and declining stablecoin liquidity are two key issues troubling the market.
Without stronger spot buying or renewed capital inflows, the selling pressure could outpace demand, preventing any price stabilization.
Robust US Job Numbers Heighten Market Expectations
Bitcoin’s precarious position is poised for another test following the US economy’s addition of 165,000 jobs in October, significantly exceeding economists’ forecasts of 65,000.
The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1% since September, and average hourly earnings saw a rise of 0.4%. The hiring figures for August and September were also revised upwards by a total of 84,000 jobs, affirming signs of a resilient labor market.
This unexpectedly strong report has fueled speculation regarding another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December. As reported by Reuters, futures traders have increased the likelihood of a quarter-point hike to roughly 80%, up from 75% prior to the release.
US Treasury yields reacted by rising, with the 10-year benchmark yield climbing to about 4.88% during early trading. Higher yields might further diminish Bitcoin’s appeal by making interest-bearing investments more attractive, potentially reducing investors’ appetite for risk.
However, much of the anticipated December tightening was likely already factored into the markets before Friday’s update.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at the Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum, mentioned in an interview with CryptoSlate that investors should keep an eye on long-term Treasury yields, as they may influence further tightening of financial conditions.
For Bitcoin, the immediate risk is that additional macroeconomic pressures could intensify selling in a market that is already grappling with diminishing demand and reduced stablecoin liquidity.
Bitget analyst Lewis Huang identified $76,500 as a critical short-term support level, cautioning that if this level is breached alongside rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar, the market correction could worsen.
According to Darkfost from CryptoQuant, the more pivotal threshold is $75,000. A failure to hold this level could lead Bitcoin toward $70,000, where many investors have previously acquired their positions.
This accumulation may provide some support if buyers react around their entry points; however, ongoing selling could overwhelm demand at these price levels.
The next signals regarding Bitcoin’s potential for stability will depend on spot trading activity and the liquidity of stablecoins. If there is no recovery in either area, the market may be at risk of testing the $70,000 mark, even if the Federal Reserve’s December decision does not yield any unexpected outcomes.