The much-anticipated altcoin season has yet to truly materialize, primarily because Bitcoin maintains its firm grip on the cryptocurrency landscape. The leading cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization continues to be a major influencer, dictating the overall trajectory of the digital asset market. However, indicators suggest a potential shift is on the horizon as many alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) are beginning to show signs of resurgence. Notably, the top 100 altcoins, ranked by market cap, appear poised to potentially usher in a new altcoin surge.
Altcoin Season Index Showing Positive Momentum
The Altcoin Season Index serves as a valuable tool for gauging the strength of altcoins against Bitcoin. By analyzing the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin, the index aims to pinpoint when an altcoin season is truly underway. This index, ranging from 1 to 100, tracks the percentage of top 100 altcoins that outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. A score reaching 75% or higher often signals the beginning of an altcoin season.
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In recent months, altcoins generally underperformed Bitcoin, resulting in a decline in the Altcoin Season Index. Earlier this year, around June 2025, the index reached a low of 12, indicating that only a small fraction of altcoins surpassed Bitcoin’s performance during the preceding 90 days. Concurrently, Bitcoin’s dominance experienced a surge, climbing as high as 66%, emphasizing the prevailing focus on BTC.
However, the situation has evolved in July, with the index rebounding significantly from its June nadir. According to data sourced from CoinMarketCap, the Altcoin Season Index has now surpassed a score of 30. Their data reveals that during this period, 32 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin’s impressive 40% gain over the past three months.
Notably, meme-based cryptocurrencies are experiencing a resurgence, with tokens like PENGU and MemeCore experiencing gains exceeding 500% over the 90-day timeframe. HyperLiquid’s HYPE has also demonstrated significant growth, recording an increase of over 230% in 90 days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Is Bitcoin Dominance Preparing for a Downturn?
Bitcoin dominance has largely held steady within the 60th percentile for the last three months. Yet, recent developments have instilled optimism among investors, evidenced by a 3% decrease to roughly 63% in the last couple of weeks.
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Historically, a more substantial drop is needed for altcoin season to fully blossom. Looking back at past cycles, in 2017, Bitcoin dominance plummeted from above 95% to approximately 50% before altcoins surged. Another instance in 2017 saw a decrease from over 70% to about 41% prior to the onset of altcoin season.
Based on this pattern, a substantial decline in Bitcoin dominance, potentially into the 40% or even 30% range, might be necessary for a sustained altcoin season. However, if Bitcoin continues to maintain high dominance, it will likely remain the market leader, potentially limiting the growth potential of altcoins.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView.com