The cryptocurrency world is abuzz with talk of an “altseason,” a period where alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) gain traction and value. This discussion is gaining momentum, fueled by the recent positive performance of major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP.
Ethereum, often considered a leading altcoin, has experienced significant growth, reaching the $4,000 level again, a milestone unseen since December 2024. Simultaneously, XRP’s price has also surged, exceeding $3 after a rise of over 10% in the last week.
However, recent data suggests that the altcoin season might still be in its early stages. A true altseason, characterized by mid and small-cap altcoins outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), typically involves a shift of investment capital from Bitcoin towards these other digital assets.
Analyst Suggests True Altcoin Season Occurred Earlier in 2024
According to a recent post on X by on-chain analyst Darkfost, the altseason “hasn’t really begun yet.” This statement comes despite the overall improved performance of the altcoin market in recent months, where many non-Bitcoin assets have led in percentage gains.
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Darkfost’s reasoning is based on comparing the performance of different cryptocurrency classes relative to Bitcoin over the last few months. The analyst analyzed the market capitalization growth of Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins (the top 20), and mid-to-small-cap altcoins by examining the difference between their 365-day and 30-day moving averages (MAs).
The difference between the 365-day and 30-day moving averages often serves as an indicator of growth momentum. When the short-term (30-day MA) rises more quickly than the long-term (365-day MA), it suggests rapid growth. Conversely, a slower 30-day moving average indicates weaker momentum.
In their X post, Darkfost pointed out that the altcoin market’s current performance in relation to Bitcoin is the weakest it has been in this market cycle. The provided chart highlights that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is currently outpacing both the top 20 altcoins and the broader range of mid-to-small-cap digital assets.
The analyst suggests that a similar performance pattern was observed earlier in the year, preceding a broad market downturn. However, Darkfost noted that the most significant upward movement, resembling a “true” altseason, occurred during the first quarter of 2024.
Altcoin Market Capitalization
As of now, the total value of the altcoin market exceeds $1.55 trillion, reflecting a growth of more than 12% over the past week.
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Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView