The ascending channel can be traced back to Dogecoin’s initial trading history, making its recent breach more significant than a typical market correction.
Analyst Ali Martinez has declared the $15 target for Dogecoin, which he has monitored since its inception, to be obsolete due to DOGE falling below the long-term rising channel upon which the whole prediction was based.
This development undermines previous bullish indicators that many analysts highlighted throughout August, including whale accumulation and a technical buy signal that suggested a potential rally back towards that same channel.
The Channel That Supported the $15 Forecast Has Broken
This channel is a rising parallel formation that Martinez identifies as a defining characteristic of Dogecoin’s pricing since it began. Each time the price touched its lower edge, it indicated what he views as a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity, evidenced by increases of 9,221% in 2017 and 30,694% in 2020.
When DOGE revisited that support in February 2026, the structure hinted at another potential rally, setting the $15 price target. However, following DOGE’s breach below this boundary, Martinez contends that the technical basis for the $15 projection has been eliminated.
Currently, the original meme coin is trading around $0.0806, reflecting a 6.6% decline over the week and a 3% drop for the day. It remains just under the $0.0813 level that several analysts had previously marked as critical to maintain.
When compared to Bitcoin, the token appears stable, down by about half a percent. This indicates that DOGE is not simply lagging behind a wider market downturn, but is rather falling below a significant level on its own chart. It also stands 89% lower than its all-time high of $0.7316 reached in May 2021.
Previous Bullish Sentiment Leading Up to August
Positive sentiment had been building for several weeks. On August 15, Martinez indicated a monthly TD Sequential buy signal, along with an inverted hammer and a developing doji candle. He likened this setup to that of August 2022, which preceded a 145% increase in the following month.
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He also noted that whale wallets had accumulated over 430 million DOGE that week. According to CryptoPotato, the meme coin had dipped below $0.07 just days earlier, marking its lowest point in nearly three years. Meanwhile, active addresses increased from 38,000 in July to 44,000, with other analysts, including Crypto Patel, identifying the $0.07 to $0.10 range as an area for long-term accumulation.
By late August, DOGE had increased by 30% in a week, nearing $0.09 and surpassing the critical $0.0813 threshold. Some more aggressive traders even predicted targets of $3 from MikybullCrypto and $10 from Vuori Trading, the latter of which would require Dogecoin’s market cap to exceed $1.5 trillion.
This rally has since subsided, with DOGE now trading below the same resistance it had previously surpassed weeks ago.