By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
If the performance of cryptocurrencies and related stocks on Monday provides any hints about October and the fourth quarter, the crypto sector might see some encouraging growth. Currently, it’s still underperforming compared to both U.S. stock indices and precious metals.
saw a 5% upswing from its Friday low, fueled by market anxieties, reaching a more stable level around $114,000 on Monday. This demonstrates how swiftly market sentiment can shift, as indicated by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Despite this increase, the leading cryptocurrency relinquished some gains, hovering around $112,800 recently. Bitcoin may need gold’s strong momentum to cool off before it can sustain a significant upward movement.
However, this could be a hurdle. Gold continues to be a star performer, with year-to-date returns nearing 50% and a new peak above $3,870 reached earlier today. Concurrently, the dollar index (DXY) is lacking upward momentum and has dipped below 98, generally favorable for risk-on assets.
Adding to the mix, the potential for an upcoming U.S. government shutdown looms, potentially impacting policy decisions related to the crypto world more significantly than other sectors.
Shares connected to artificial intelligence and advanced computing are steadily strengthening. Robinhood (HOOD), the trading platform that recently joined the S&P 500, saw its stock price surge by 12% on Monday as the quarter drew to a close.
Cryptocurrencies experienced a rather quiet September, with the CoinDesk 20 Index showing minimal change, up only 0.54%. underperformed, likely to drop more than 5% during the month. Bitcoin is currently up 4.5%.
October, historically known as “Uptober” for its positive impact on BTC, is fast approaching. Stay informed!
What to Watch
For a detailed list of upcoming events this week, refer to CoinDesk’s week-ahead note.
- Crypto
- Sept. 30: FTX commences its third creditor distribution of around $1.6 billion under its bankruptcy plan, facilitated through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer. Eligibility requires creditors to complete KYC and tax forms.
- Sept. 30: Starknet (STRK) begins BTC staking on its mainnet, enabling wrapped BTC token staking with a 25% consensus weight. The un-staking period is shortened to 7 days, and rewards are initiated.
- Macro
- Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. August JOLTS report release. Expected openings are 7.1M, with quits previously at 3.208M.
- Sept. 30, 10 a.m.: U.S. September CB Consumer Confidence report. Expected at 96.
- Sept. 30: Deadline for the U.S. Congress to approve the annual federal appropriations bill, which funds government operations.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more detailed list of token-related events this week, consult CoinDesk’s week-ahead note.
- Governance votes & calls
- GnosisDAO is holding a vote on a resubmitted proposal to establish a $40,000 pilot fund. This fund would enable community-led financing of small ecosystem projects using a conviction voting mechanism. Voting concludes on Oct. 1.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Sept. 30: Soon (SOON) airdrop claim period concludes.
- Sept. 30: ZkVerify (VFY) will be listed on Binance, KuCoin, Gate.io, and other exchanges.
Conferences
Consult CoinDesk’s week-ahead note for a comprehensive listing of this week’s conferences.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The rivalry between derivatives exchanges Aster and HyperLiquid is becoming more intense.
- Data from DefiLlama indicates that daily trading volume on BNB Chain-based Aster has soared to $64 billion, substantially exceeding HyperLiquid’s $7.6 billion.
- According to BoltLiquidity core contributor Max Arch, this shift is attributed to Aster’s leverage offerings ranging from 100x to 300x. In contrast, HyperLiquid’s markets primarily cap at 40x.
- “Traders are gravitating towards the leverage, irrespective of platform quality. However, the long-term impact of heightened risk associated with higher leverage on platforms like Aster remains to be seen,” Arch commented on X.
- Arch points out that approximately 6% of Aster’s trading volume can be linked to wash trading, a figure significantly lower than initial skeptical estimates.
- Over the past week, the exchanges’ native tokens, ASTER and HYPE, have exhibited weak performance. ASTER has declined from $2.39 on September 25 to $1.80, while HYPE has dropped from its high of $58.92 on September 18 to $44.32.
- Data from CoinMarketCap suggests that the bearish performance of these tokens relative to trading activity can be attributed to a broader altcoin sell-off, resulting in the removal of $200 billion from the sector’s total market capitalization last week.
Derivatives Positioning
- The market indicates a potential return to a bullish sentiment, with derivative metrics, including open interest and basis, demonstrating an uptick.
- Overall, BTC futures open interest has climbed to approximately $31 billion from a recent monthly low of $29 billion, signaling renewed interest from traders. Binance continues to lead with $12.7 billion.
- The three-month annualized basis is also recovering, rising to 7% from around 6%, enhancing the profitability of basis trades.
- The BTC options market presents a complex and somewhat contradictory landscape.
- While the 25 delta skew for short-term options continues to decrease, suggesting that traders are paying a premium for puts and seeking downside protection, the 24-hour put-call volume conveys a different narrative.
- In a clear reversal from recent trends, calls now dominate the volume, accounting for 65% of the contracts traded. This significant surge suggests that, despite the cautious sentiment reflected in the skew, a substantial number of traders are actively positioning for a short-term rally.
- This divergence highlights a highly polarized market, where hedging strategies and speculative bets contribute to a mixed sentiment.
- Funding rates on major platforms like Binance and OKX have turned positive, increasing to around 7% and 10%, respectively. This indicates a growing appetite for leveraged long positions, with long traders now compensating shorts – a classic sign of positive market sentiment.
- Although the funding rate on Hyperliquid remains volatile, the trend on key exchanges suggests traders are regaining confidence and are more willing to assume bullish exposure.
- Coinglass data reveals $316 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 44-56 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($73 million), BTC ($70 million), and other assets ($29 million) led in notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap identifies $115,000 as a key liquidation level to monitor in the event of a price increase.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $112,840.60 (24hrs: +0.71%)
- ETH is down 2.13% at $4,138.84 (24hrs: +0.71%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.34% at 3,971.18 (24hrs: -0.16%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 12 bps at 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0056% (6.1276% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.82
- Gold futures are up 0.76% at $3,884.40
- Silver futures are unchanged at $47.01
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.25% at 44,932.63
- Hang Seng closed up 0.87% at 26,855.56
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,299.84
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,506.85
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.15% at 46,316.07
- S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at 6,661.21
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.48% at 22,591.15
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.71% at 29,971.91
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.84% at 2,945.34
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.125%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% at 6,706.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,814.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.13% at 46,550.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.88% (0.12%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03673 (-0.33%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,041 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $50.55
- Total Fees: 3.32 BTC / $376,516
- CME Futures Open Interest: 133,005 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.5 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.32%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin has recovered to the $114,000 level after testing the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly chart and is now trading above all key daily EMAs.
- For bullish investors, a primary objective is to surpass the daily order block located between $116,000 and $118,000, which would validate a market structure break and indicate a potential shift in the current trend.
- On the downside, if the price closes below Monday’s high of $114,870, Bitcoin could potentially retest Monday’s lows. This level coincides with the EMA100 on the daily chart, making it a crucial area to monitor.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $333.99 (+6.85%), -1.77% at $328.09 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $133.66 (+5.25%), -1.22% at $132.03
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.29 (+10.97%), -1.90% at $33.64
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $62.3 (-0.46%), -1.56% at $61.33
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.66 (+15.69%), -2.63% at $18.17
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.78 (+11.81%), -2.38% at $19.31
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.33 (+2.85%), -0.52% at $17.24
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.87 (+14.74%), -2.02% at $14.57
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.21 (+8.86%), -1.02% at $43.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.95 (+1.54%), +1.38% at $29.35
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $326.42 (+5.62%), -2.34% at $318.77
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.24 (+3.29%), -0.14% at $29.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.26 (+7.88%), -2.61% at $16.81
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.62 (+7.77%), -1.25% at $5.55
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.54 (-0.78%), 1.57% at $2.50
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $518 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $546.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $13.69 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.46 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- SEC Willing to Engage With Tokenized Asset Issuers, SEC’s Hester Peirce Says (CoinDesk): According to SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, the SEC is open to dialogue with tokenized asset issuers. She notes that tokenization introduces intricate questions concerning the coexistence of digital and traditional securities, encouraging issuers to seek guidance as the market progresses towards a potential multitrillion-dollar valuation.
- Vance Says U.S. ‘Headed to a Shutdown’ After Meeting With Democrats (Reuters): Negotiations have stalled due to a dispute over healthcare funding, increasing the likelihood of furloughs, court closures, and service delays if government funding expires tomorrow.
- Visa Tests Pre-Funded Stablecoins for Cross-Border Payments (Bloomberg): A pilot program using Circle’s USDC and EURC aims to enable banks and remittance companies to circumvent pre-funded accounts, thereby expediting cross-border transfers and improving capital efficiency via Visa Direct.
- Deutsche Börse, Circle to Integrate Stablecoins Into European Market Infrastructure (CoinDesk): The integration will initially feature Circle’s EURC and USDC trading on 360T’s 3DX and via Crypto Finance, with custody handled by Clearstream through Crypto Finance’s German subsidiary serving as a sub-custodian.
- Societe Generale’s Crypto Arm Deploys Euro and Dollar Stablecoins on Uniswap, Morpho (CoinDesk): SG-FORGE’s EURCV and USDCV are now operational on Uniswap and Morpho, enabling borrowing against crypto assets and tokenized T-Bills, with Flowdesk supplying spot market liquidity.
- Share.