Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, suggests there is a 65% likelihood that Bitcoin’s (BTC) lowest point of the cycle is still ahead. This assertion supports his bear market outlook even amid a significant rally this summer.
In a recent video interview, Cowen highlighted Bitcoin’s realized price at approximately $53,000, indicating that bears must test this level before confirming the market bottom.
Reasons Behind Cowen’s Bearish Stance
At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading around $78,300, reflecting a decline of 1.7% over the past day, as per data from BeInCrypto. Cowen’s remarks followed a notable 40% rebound from Bitcoin’s summer lows.
Cowen mentioned that this rally alone isn’t sufficient to validate a market bottom. He cited instances in 2018 and 2022 when Bitcoin experienced similar or larger price rebounds but still faced declines in the fourth quarter of those midterm years.
He cautioned that expecting a deviation from this pattern could lead to errors similar to those made by traders in past cycles. This perspective stands whether or not his current analysis turns out to be incorrect.
“I would estimate there’s probably a 65% chance that the market low is yet to come, and a 35% chance that it has already occurred.”
Benjamin Cowen
Cowen referred to Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the aggregate cost across the network, as a historical indicator for market lows. Currently, this figure stands near $53,000, a significant level highlighted in BeInCrypto’s earlier analysis on potential lows in Q4.
Historically, all previous bear market lows during midterm years have fallen below this threshold, according to Cowen. The timing of these lows has varied widely across different cycles.
The analyst has consistently suggested that Bitcoin adheres to a four-year cycle model, with lows normally occurring during the fourth quarter of midterm years. An October low would maintain this established trend.
What Lies Ahead
Cowen mentioned that if October passes without hitting a lower low, it might start to tilt the balance in favor of bullish sentiment. He highlighted that the primary risk lies in time-based capitulation rather than hitting a specific price target.
Over the next month and a half, Cowen predicts challenges for Bitcoin. However, he anticipates a shift in sentiment as the fourth quarter unfolds, possibly making more bears turn bullish.
Should the prevailing trend change and bears capitulate, Cowen stated he would reassess his bearish outlook. Regardless of how the market evolves for the rest of the year, he expects to adopt a bullish stance as we approach 2027.
Cowen suggested that employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy is generally more effective than attempting to time the market’s lowest point. He clarified that this isn’t financial advice.
For now, he is focusing on the $53,000 mark as the critical level to monitor rather than assuming the lowest point has already been reached.
Read the Original story Ben Cowen Says Bitcoin Has 65% Chance of Extending Bear Market, Watching $53,000 by Darryn Pollock at beincrypto.com