The well-known four-year pattern of Bitcoin price fluctuations may no longer be a reliable predictor, suggests Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. In his recent market assessment, Hougan proposes that factors like increased interest from large institutions, clearer regulations, and the growing influence of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are altering Bitcoin’s course. He anticipates a significant upswing in price by 2026, stating that the traditional drivers of the four-year cycles are becoming less impactful and the Bitcoin halving events – previously known to cause market swings – now have a reduced influence [1][2].
Hougan’s forecast relies on four main emerging trends. The first is the rise of ETFs since 2024, which are facilitating the entry of institutional money into Bitcoin. Secondly, broader adoption by institutions is picking up speed, with pension funds and university endowments just starting to invest in digital assets. Thirdly, regulatory clarity, stemming from initiatives such as the U.S. GENIUS Act, is predicted to create a more stable environment for market growth. Finally, Wall Street’s gradual acceptance of crypto is poised to funnel substantial investment into the asset class as major banks expand their crypto services [2][4]. According to Hougan, these elements are “out of sync with the four-year cycle,” indicating a shift away from historical trends [5].
The CIO’s 2026 projection is based on the combined effect of these trends. By then, Hougan believes the institutional infrastructure will be better established, regulatory issues will be resolved, and demand driven by ETFs will be consistent. He suggests this will lead to a positive feedback loop of adoption and liquidity that diminishes the remaining influence of the four-year cycle. While he didn’t provide specific price targets, Hougan stated that “2026 will be a good year” [3].
Hougan’s viewpoint aligns with broader market observations. Recent price behavior demonstrates a divergence from historical patterns. For example, the 2024 halving didn’t result in a corresponding price peak, as institutional investment and regulatory advancements continued steadily [6]. While Hougan acknowledges the historical importance of the four-year cycle, he argues that it’s losing its predictive power as the market evolves. He believes that “long-term pro-crypto forces will overshadow the classic four-year cycle forces” [2].
However, the 2026 forecast is speculative and relies on the assumption that current trends will persist. Macroeconomic changes, geopolitical events, or regulatory setbacks could change the outcome. Analysts like Rekt Capital have cautioned that Bitcoin might reach a peak within months, possibly in October 2025, following a similar pattern to 2020, which would be 550 days post-halving [1]. Conversely, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also suggested that the four-year theory is outdated, citing institutional adoption as a more significant factor [2].
Regardless of differing opinions, Hougan’s perspective reflects a market that’s becoming more mature, where institutional infrastructure and regulatory frameworks play an increasing role in shaping Bitcoin’s performance. As one observer noted, “The market is maturing. The forces driving Bitcoin now are as much about institutional adoption as supply mechanics” [4]. While volatility remains a factor, Hougan emphasizes a “sustained steady boom” rather than a rapid super-cycle, advising caution against excessive optimism given the potential for market fluctuations [2].
Source:
[1] [Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)
[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)
[3] [Bitcoin’s 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as …](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)
[4] [Crypto market’s four-year cycle is ‘dead’](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)
[5] [Four-year Bitcoin cycles are dead](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/b31b8-four-year-bitcoin-cycles-are-dead-bitwise-cio-says)
[6] [Bitcoin’s four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market …](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)