The future direction of Bitcoin remains a hot topic, with some analysts suggesting a potential downturn is on the horizon. If the historical four-year cycle pattern holds true, Bitcoin could be entering a bear market phase.
One potential scenario, according to Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, a crypto analytics platform, points towards a price target of $50,000 for Bitcoin by October 2026. Wedson also mentioned a potential high of $140,000 as well.
Currently, Bitcoin is facing resistance at a key trend line. A failure to overcome this resistance could trigger a retracement toward the $100,000 support level. Some traders believe that if the $100,000 level fails to hold, the bull market will be over.
Wedson, using his “Repetition Fractal Cycle” charts on X, indicates that Bitcoin might only have a short period left in its current cycle before a bear market potentially commences, possibly as soon as October.
“Of course, it would be reckless to assume that Bitcoin has only a little over one month left in this cycle based solely on this chart,” he acknowledged. “Still, I can’t help but think—this could be just enough time for BTC to dip toward the $100K range before rocketing past $140K within the same period. Who would dare to doubt that scenario?”
Wedson also acknowledges that the current market cycle differs from previous ones due to increased participation from institutional investors and Bitcoin’s growing status as a mainstream asset.
“The real question is whether this fractal will remain reliable in the face of heavy speculation around ETFs and growing institutional demand,” he continued.
A broader bear market affecting macro assets in the United States could further pressure Bitcoin if it coincides with the predicted bear market timeframe suggested by the cycle analysis.
The core question revolves around the continued validity of the four-year cycle, a topic of increasing debate as we move into 2025.
Wedson summarizes the situation: “Personally, I’m eager to see whether the new wave of crypto enthusiasts are right in claiming the 4-year cycle is over and Bitcoin will now rise endlessly—or if 2025 marks the final breath before a sharp correction, with prices possibly sinking below $50K in the 2026 bear market.”
Many analysts are closely watching the $100,000 level, anticipating a potential retest of this support as part of the ongoing correction, as reported by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is currently struggling to overcome a downward-sloping trend line that has acted as resistance since the mid-August correction.
One trader, known as Killa on X, stated, “This 1 chart decides if $BTC breaks below $100K or breaks to new ATH.”
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.