Bitcoin’s significant upswing is beginning to exhibit signs of fatigue. Despite a crucial trend metric nearing an ideal score, the demand for the leading cryptocurrency is sharply declining, prompting concerns about the sustainability of its current trajectory.
On Wednesday morning in Asia, the cryptocurrency rose by 0.4%, surpassing $83,300. This slight increase remains considerably lower than its recent peak of approximately $87,400, reached eight months ago. The retreat from this high aligns with a noticeable discrepancy in market indicators: while sentiment remains optimistic, the actual buying momentum appears to be waning.
CryptoQuant has reported a Bull Score of 90 out of 100, a composite measurement that aggregates on-chain and market data into a singular figure. This score surged after Bitcoin exceeded its 365-day moving average last week, which CryptoQuant considers a validation of a bullish market trend. According to this perspective, the overall trend remains robust.
However, the demand landscape suggests a contrasting narrative. The firm estimates that spot demand has decreased by around 170,000 BTC in the last month. CryptoQuant arrives at this figure by comparing newly mined Bitcoin with the supply of coins that have remained untouched for over a year. This metric, referred to as apparent demand, has been diminishing consistently, indicating that the market is absorbing fewer coins than are becoming available.
The slowdown is even more evident in derivative markets. The growth in speculative futures demand plummeted from about 164,000 BTC on September 14 to only 16,000 BTC by September 29, marking a staggering 90% drop in just 15 days.
“Without new demand, rallies find it hard to persist,” stated Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research head, in his report. “Given that spot demand continues to decline and futures growth is stagnant, maintaining near-term gains is increasingly challenging.”
Profit-taking adds further pressure to this dynamic. Recent purchasers are currently sitting on unrealized profits averaging 33%, the highest level recorded since December 2024. On September 22, they secured profits on 25,700 BTC, marking the largest single day of realized gains this year.
Altcoin Activity Indicates Caution
This cautious sentiment extends to altcoins as well. CryptoQuant identified 76,000 altcoin deposits to exchanges over a week, the highest since October 2025. These deposits came from about 51,000 different addresses, indicating that coins available on exchanges may be sold quickly, positioning them for potential distribution if prices rise.
Despite these movements, several significant altcoins experienced gains. Solana and Zcash led the charge among major tokens, each appreciating by nearly 2% to around $119 and just above $1,400, respectively. XRP rose about 1%, trading slightly under $1.50, while Ether, BNB, and TRON each saw gains of less than 1%.
Market Overview
Bitcoin’s modest rise coincided with a overall recovery in Asian stock markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased by 0.9%, with ten of its eleven sectors showing positive trends. Bonds stabilized following a recent sell-off. SoftBank Group, an investor in OpenAI, surged over 6% after reports surfaced that the AI startup is seeking at least $30 billion in new funding at a valuation of $1.4 trillion. Futures for equity indices hint at potential gains in Europe and on Wall Street.
Market participants are now closely watching a critical U.S. inflation report due later today, which will influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future decisions. A stronger-than-anticipated report typically increases the likelihood of a rate hike, which tends to support the dollar while pressuring risky assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, a softer report may favor a rate cut, generally boosting crypto valuations.
The contrast between the strong Bull Score and the weakening demand metrics places the market at a pivotal juncture. If new buying interest does not materialize, the recent descent from $87,400 could intensify. However, any resurgence in demand from spot or futures traders could swiftly reignite upward momentum. For the moment, indicators suggest that the road to further gains has become more challenging than it seemed just a fortnight ago.