In brief
- Profit realization has decreased by half since July, indicating reduced selling activity.
- Profit margins for long-term Bitcoin holders are substantially lower than peak levels seen in previous market cycles.
- A significant concentration of derivatives traders are focusing on call options around the $120,000 mark, pointing towards positive market expectations.
Bitcoin’s climb to new record highs this week remains strong, supported by underlying market data and derivatives trading activity suggesting a firm foundation rather than excessive speculation.
The current upward trend retains its power, as profit-taking is not as pronounced compared to previous cycle highs, even though Bitcoin has achieved multiple all-time highs this year, as stated in CryptoQuant’s most recent weekly analysis.
Historically, October, often referred to as “Uptober,” has been a strong month for Bitcoin. This year, it has triggered a widespread market surge, with funds shifting into established
altcoins.
The question now is whether this historic surge in digital asset values is sustainable—a closer look at blockchain data offers insights.
—
CryptoQuant’s data reveals that Bitcoin holders have realized profits of $30 billion in the last month, which is a 50% drop from the $63 billion peak in July. This figure is also significantly lower than the $78 billion and $99 billion observed during the market peaks of March and December 2024.
This confidence extends to long-term Bitcoin holders. Their current realized profit margins are around 129%, considerably below the 300% level that often signals market exhaustion.
“Currently, call options in the $120,000 to $140,000 range are the most actively traded, with a major concentration of Bitcoin positions around the $120,000 level,” Adam Chu, head researcher at GreeksLive, informed
Decrypt
.
He clarified that significant market participants are focusing on out-of-the-money calls—options that generate profit only if Bitcoin’s price exceeds particular predefined levels.
“Market maker gamma levels remain low, indicating that slight price variations have a limited impact,” Chu pointed out, further stating that $110,000 acts as a vital support level, while new peaks could stimulate accelerated buying pressure.
The synergy of disciplined holding behaviors and strategically positioned bullish sentiment suggests continued positive momentum.
“I personally maintain a positive outlook on market conditions in October,” Chu shared, adding that several experienced institutional traders have expressed optimism regarding the fourth quarter in their discussions.
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