Bitcoin is regaining its edge, with its win rate against the S&P 500 now exceeding 50%. This indicates a growing interest among individual investors in the cryptocurrency.
This win rate assesses how frequently Bitcoin outperforms the S&P 500 during a series of trading sessions. A figure above 50% signifies that Bitcoin is excelling more often than it lags behind.
The downturn occurred in mid-August when Bitcoin’s three-month win rate against the S&P 500 dropped to 37.8%, marking its lowest performance in six years, according to Glassnode data.
However, September brought a turnaround. Bitcoin saw an approximate 7% increase within the month, while the S&P 500 remained relatively stable, fluctuating just between 0% and 0.3%.
In contrast, gold faced a more significant decline, decreasing over 6% during the same period.
Looking back to mid-August, the disparity becomes clearer. Since then, Bitcoin’s market cap has surged by about 36%, while the S&P 500 recorded a meager gain of just 0.8%.
During September, Bitcoin even managed to outperform the index for three consecutive weeks.
Analysts from Santiment noted that Bitcoin is now moving independently from stocks, with its correlation to the S&P 500 effectively diminished.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 260-day correlation with the index is at its lowest since 2015.
Smaller investors who exited the market in mid-August have since returned, contributing significantly to renewed demand.
In September, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced several days of robust net inflows, aligning with Bitcoin’s strength relative to equities.
Earlier in 2026, Bitcoin struggled against traditional assets, epitomized by its win rate dipping to 37.8%. However, a rapid turnaround has occurred, moving from a six-year low in performance to a winning streak in just about a month.
These ETF inflows are noteworthy. The strong inflow days in September suggest that institutional investors are reacting positively to Bitcoin’s renewed strength.
On the retail front, caution is advised. Smaller investors tend to follow trends, often selling during downturns and purchasing during upswings. While their return can boost demand, it tends to be inconsistent if prices stabilize.
With gold’s drop exceeding 6% in September and Bitcoin’s rise of around 7%, the discussion about which asset is a better store of value is likely to continue.
The crucial aspect to monitor is whether Bitcoin’s win rate can remain above 50% in the coming weeks. The correlation metric is another important indicator. Maintaining this near its lowest level since 2015 may lead investors to consider Bitcoin as a distinct asset class with unique drivers and risks.