Recent data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost indicates that Bitcoin market sentiment has surged above 89, marking the peak level since March 2024 before retracting slightly.
Summary
- Darkfost’s sentiment index briefly entered the “extreme greed” territory during Bitcoin’s recent price surge.
- Subsequently, the reading has calmed as Bitcoin strives to maintain its value.
- As per CoinGecko, Bitcoin was hovering around $77,300 after a 24-hour trading range between approximately $76,400 and $79,600.
- For the trading week from September 8 to 11, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $462.7 million in net outflows.
According to analyst Darkfost, the last significant spike in bullish sentiment took place in March 2024. His sentiment measure temporarily exceeded 89 out of 100 as Bitcoin’s value increased, placing it in the “extreme greed” category.
This sentiment has since declined from its peak, even while Bitcoin attempts to stabilize its price. Darkfost pointed out that such unusually high or low sentiment readings warrant attention as they often accompany pivotal market shifts. While his analysis highlights potential risks, it does not definitively indicate that Bitcoin is reversing its trend.
Bitcoin sentiment has retraced from its peak
Darkfost’s reference to March 2024 pertains to the sentiment index he monitors. This index integrates Fear & Greed data with other factors, so its score exceeding 89 shouldn’t be interpreted as the present value of all crypto sentiment metrics.
In contrast, Alternative.me’s separate Fear & Greed Index was recorded at 63, categorized as “greed,” at the time of this report. It had been at 56 the previous day, 73 a week ago, and 29 a month back. Alternative.me clarifies that its index is influenced by Bitcoin’s volatility, trading dynamics, social-media engagement, Bitcoin’s market share, and search trends.
These two indices serve distinct roles in understanding market sentiment. Darkfost’s figure reflects a recent extreme peak in his measure, while Alternative.me’s figure provides a concurrent view of market sentiment. Neither metric indicates the volume of Bitcoin transactions or offers a specific price target.
Darkfost also distinguishes between sentiment in prolonged bear markets versus sentiment during price fluctuations. He notes that negative sentiment can linger during weak markets, while extreme sentiment readings gain relevance when investor behavior shifts alongside price movements. However, he does not specify a date or price point where Bitcoin might change direction.
Bitcoin is trading below the recent $80,000 threshold
At the latest check on CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading around $77,300, with a daily range showing a low of about $76,393 and a high near $79,607, indicating that the current price remains below the upper end of that range. Live price data and trading ranges are subject to change prior to publication.
This price movement contextualizes Darkfost’s observation about a cooling sentiment as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize. While it doesn’t indicate when his index hit its peak, it’s important to note that the market data should not be used to infer that a specific intraday movement caused the sentiment reading to surpass 89.
Recent coverage from crypto.news has monitored the price fluctuations amid this pullback. On September 10, a technical report noted a drop below $78,000, with the lower Bollinger Band identified at around $76,392 at that time. The report also indicated the band’s midpoint at $78,650 and the upper limit at roughly $80,907—these statistics are derived from September 10 rather than reflecting current market conditions.
Earlier in the week, analysts highlighted to crypto.news that Bitcoin could stay beneath $82,000 until the Federal Reserve announces its next decision. In a report on September 7, CoinEx’s chief analyst Jeff Ko noted support levels around $78,000–$79,000, with resistance near $82,000. Bitcoin’s subsequent dip below $78,000 indicates that the support range has already been tested; Ko’s previous figures should be interpreted within the timeframe they were provided.
The same September 7 report mentioned that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had attracted approximately $986.9 million during the preceding trading week, totaling around $3.8 billion over three weeks. Ko expressed a desire to see more inflows while Bitcoin traded sideways before deeming the activity as sustained accumulation. However, the data from the subsequent week revealed a different outcome.
Negative trends in U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows
For the trading period from September 8–11, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows, according to Farside’s data published Saturday. The funds faced net withdrawals each day following the closure of U.S. markets for Labor Day on Monday, September 7.
Thursday saw the most significant daily withdrawal, totaling $282.7 million. Although outflows lessened to $13.2 million on Friday, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB suffered the largest decline among Bitcoin funds at $234.2 million during the week, as per the report. Similarly, BlackRock’s IBIT experienced a net reduction of $52.5 million over the four days.
Fund flows provide U.S. investors with another metric to assess alongside Darkfost’s sentiment readings, though they measure varying activities. Farside’s data tracks net subscriptions and redemptions of the listed products and does not clarify whether specific ETF investors bought or sold Bitcoin directly. Additionally, a weekly net outflow does not necessarily explain fluctuations in daily prices.
Furthermore, U.S. inflation data has influenced market trends ahead of the Fed’s meeting. The consumer price index report for August, released on September 11, stated that prices increased by 3.4% over the past year, aligning with July’s rate. Excluding food and energy, prices rose by 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-on-year.
The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for September 15–16. While the meeting date is set, the outcome and any resulting impacts on Bitcoin’s price remain uncertain.