Bitcoin (BTC-USD) soared past $80,000 on Thursday, fueled by remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that shifted expectations regarding interest rates, weakened the U.S. dollar, and drove Treasury yields down.
The leading cryptocurrency experienced a notable increase of over $2,400, rising from approximately $77,200 earlier in the day to a peak of $80,477, ultimately settling around $80,841.
This upward movement was sparked by Waller’s suggestion that he would prefer to maintain current interest rates during the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 15-16, assuming forthcoming inflation statistics indicate easing price pressure.
Following these comments, the likelihood of a rate hike in September dropped about 12 percentage points to 54.6%. The dollar index fell by 0.5%, bond yields decreased, and gold prices rose by 2.3%, creating a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.
The surge also allowed Bitcoin to breach a significant technical threshold.
BTC surpassed $78,670, which traders are now considering a vital short-term support level. The 200-period exponential moving average is notably lower at $73,638, but its upward trajectory indicates that the overall trend remains positive.
However, the rapid increase introduces potential risks. The 14-period RSI for Bitcoin climbed to 72.13, entering overbought territory, thus heightening the chances for a short-term correction or a test of support levels.
Key Factors for Bitcoin Investors to Monitor
The crucial question now is whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above $78,670.
If buyers manage to uphold this level, the next resistance zone will be between $81,300 and $81,800. A sustained move beyond $82,000 might pave the way toward the mid-$80,000 range.
Conversely, a dip below $78,670 could amplify the risk of a retreat toward $76,000 to $77,000, with stronger support expected around $74,450 and $73,638.
The macroeconomic landscape continues to be crucial. Data regarding job growth in August, inflation metrics, and shifting Fed expectations could rapidly alter the rate forecast.
Additionally, a long-term trend worth observing is Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold rising to its highest since 2020, while its recent correlation with the S&P 500 has approached zero. This suggests that investors might increasingly be viewing Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than merely another volatile technology investment.